Aud/usd falls to lowest since March amid strong us nfp
ITF Team2 min read
Aud/usd slipped to 0.6858 on Nov 6, 2026, its weakest level since March, as robust US non‑farm payrolls boosted the dollar and RBA guidance turned cautious after its latest rate hike.
Key takeaways
- Aud/usd fell to around 0.6858 on 11/6/2026, its lowest since late March.
- US nonfarm payrolls added 165,000 jobs in October, far above the 65,000 forecast.
- The RBA raised its cash rate to 4.85% on Tuesday, its fifth hike of 2026.
- The US dollar index traded near 102.15 after touching a five‑week low earlier in the week.
The Australian dollar dropped to about 0.6858 against the US dollar on Friday, November 6, 2026, marking its weakest level since late March. The move was driven by a firmer greenback after a surprisingly strong US jobs report and by cautious tone from the Reserve Bank of Australia following its latest rate increase.
US labour data lifts the dollar and pressures the Aussie
US non‑farm payrolls for October rose by 165,000, well above the 65,000 consensus, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%. The data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep tightening, keeping the US dollar index around 102.15 after a brief dip to 101.24 earlier in the week. A stronger dollar typically pushes AUD/USD lower, as the pair reflects the relative value of the two currencies.
Traders now price an 80% probability of a Fed rate hike in December, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The combination of solid US labour market momentum and lingering inflation concerns left little room for the greenback to retreat, adding to the downward pressure on the risk‑sensitive Aussie.
RBA’s fifth hike and a shift toward pause
On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia lifted its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.85%, the highest level since 2008 and the fifth increase this year. Governor Michele Bullock signalled a likely pause, saying it was “probably best to pause and assess incoming data.” The RBA also dropped its explicit commitment to further hikes.
OCBC Group Research noted that while inflation remains elevated, the cumulative rate hikes have already tightened financial conditions, evident in slowing economic activity, falling house prices and a rising unemployment rate. The analysts expect no more hikes in this cycle and anticipate the next move could be a cut.
Read also: Fed Daly says jobs data gives latitude for further tightening
Risk appetite wanes amid AI‑driven equity rout
The broader market environment turned risk‑averse as AI‑related stock market volatility intensified. The Aussie, traditionally a risk‑sensitive currency, fell further as investors fled to safer assets. At the same time, US Treasury yields slipped to a two‑month low, limiting the upside for the dollar and tempering the decline in AUD/USD.
Despite the dip, the pair is still on track for a weekly loss of more than 2%, underscoring the combined impact of a strong US dollar, weaker risk appetite and the RBA’s more dovish stance.
What traders should watch next
Key upcoming data include US CPI and PPI releases later this week, which could reshape Fed rate expectations. In Australia, any surprise in inflation or employment figures will test the RBA’s pause narrative. Technical levels to monitor are the 0.6800 support and the 0.6950 resistance, which have framed recent moves.
- US CPI and PPI data (later week)
- Australian inflation and employment reports
- Technical support at 0.6800 and resistance at 0.6950
Frequently asked questions
Why did the australian dollar fall to its lowest level since march?
The drop to about 0.6858 on 11/6/2026 was caused by a stronger US dollar after a surprisingly strong US non‑farm payrolls report, weaker risk appetite due to an AI‑driven equity rout, and the RBA’s cautious guidance following its fifth rate hike of the year.
What does the rba’s latest rate hike mean for future australian monetary policy?
The RBA raised the cash rate to 4.85% on Tuesday, its fifth increase in 2026, but Governor Bullock signalled a likely pause to assess data. Analysts expect no further hikes this cycle and see the next move possibly being a rate cut if economic slowdown continues.
Official data sources
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This article is compiled from international market news for information only. It is not investment advice.