AUD/USD rose 0.17% to around 0.7035 as September CPI beat forecasts, reviving bets on an RBA rate hike while markets await the Fed’s policy call.

The Aussie rose 0.17% on Wednesday, trading near 0.7035, after Australia’s consumer‑price index showed a bigger‑than‑expected jump. The data has rekindled expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) could lift rates at its November meeting.

Inflation surprise fuels RBA speculation

• September CPI rose 4.3% year‑on‑year, above the 4.2% consensus and up from 4.0% in August
• Monthly price growth accelerated to 0.8%, beating the 0.7% forecast
• Quarterly CPI increased 1.3% versus 0.6% in Q2
• Trimmed‑mean CPI rose 0.3% month‑on‑month and 3.7% year‑on‑year

US policy backdrop

• The Federal Reserve is set to announce its decision on Wednesday, with markets pricing a roughly 9% chance of a further hike
• Fed funds target range remains 3.75‑4.00% after a 25‑bp increase in September
• September US CPI jumped to 3.7% YoY, up from 3.4%

What traders are watching

• Technical: AUD/USD holds above the 100‑period SMA (0.7026) and 200‑period SMA (0.7010); resistance at 0.7040, 0.7055 and 0.7075
• Fundamental: RBA minutes and any hint of a November rate move
• US side: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s post‑meeting remarks for clues on future tightening

Related news

• Jeff Gundlach questions Fed's rate pause on CNBC
• Fed holds rates steady, bitcoin barely moves as December hike looms
• Gold slips toward $4,000 as oil above $100 clouds Fed outlook
• Obr downgrades uk growth forecast for 2027 despite healey budget

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This article is compiled from international market news for information only. It is not investment advice.