Bitcoin faces pressure ahead of the November 3 midterms, with past elections linked to price drops and a recent $6 billion Binance hack adding uncertainty.

Bitcoin (BTC) is under heightened scrutiny as the United States heads to its midterm elections on Tuesday, November 3. The market is still absorbing the shock of a $6 billion hack at Binance that surfaced a week earlier, and historical patterns suggest the political calendar could amplify downside risk for the leading cryptocurrency.

Historical election‑linked corrections

• In the last 22 midterms the incumbent party has gained House seats only twice, and each of the three most recent midterms coincided with Bitcoin’s bear‑market bottoms.
• The 2022 election drove BTC from $15,476 to its bear‑market low in 13 days; 2018 and 2014 elections saw drops to $3,156 and $171 over 39 and 71 days respectively.
• Quarter‑end data from CoinGlass shows November gains of 34% on average, but the 2022 and 2018 midterms produced 16% and 36% losses, followed by further declines in December, delivering 14%‑43% Q4 losses overall.

Potential moderating factors

• Spot Bitcoin ETFs hold about $98 billion in net assets (down from a $152 billion peak in July 2025).
• ETF inflows have historically moved BTC’s spot price since the products launched in January 2024, and fresh inflows in November‑December could cushion election‑driven pressure.
• The 200‑day EMA at $76,459 is a key technical level; a break below could reopen a path to the annual low near $57,800.

What traders are watching next

• Whether Bitcoin can stay above the $76,459 200‑day EMA as the vote count unfolds.
• Upcoming ETF flow data for November and December.
• Results of the midterms – forecasts give Democrats a 94% chance of holding the House and 74% chance in the Senate, which could shape market sentiment.

Related news

• Evening market overview, 2 November 2026
• FBI attributes $6bn Binance hack to North Korea as withdrawals resume
• Solana slides below key EMAs as ETF outflows hit record
• Binance records $3.64 bn net outflows as withdrawals resume

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This article is compiled from international market news for information only. It is not investment advice.