Copper price forecast: tight China supply lifts to $6.44
ITF Team2 min read
Copper rebounds to $6.44 on tight Chinese supply, but hotter US CPI could boost the dollar and test the $6.64 barrier, analysts say on Nov 9, 2026.
Key takeaways
- Copper rose to about $6.44 on Nov 9, 2026 as Chinese warehouse stocks fell 24.1% to 33,848 tonnes, the lowest since Jan 2024.
- The 50‑day SMA sits at $6.64; a break above it is needed for further upside, while a fall below $6.24 could push prices toward $6.00.
- US CPI data on Nov 13, 2026 will likely decide whether the dollar index supports or pressures copper around the $6.44 level.
- Long‑term support sits near $5.20; a breach of $6.00 would open a path toward that level.
Copper prices bounced back to the $6.44 area on Monday, Nov 9, 2026, after a sharp drop in Chinese warehouse inventories and a modest easing of the US dollar. The move is tied to a tightening supply outlook in China and comes ahead of the US consumer‑price index (CPI) release later in the week.
China’s inventory squeeze fuels the rebound
Stocks of copper in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses fell 24.1% last week to 33,848 tonnes, the lowest level recorded since January 2024. Smelter maintenance reduced domestic refined output, prompting Chinese buyers to turn to imports. Platts reported a record import premium of $220 per tonne on Friday, a cost that has already forced some local processors to cut production.
The tighter physical market lifted spot copper (XCU) to around $6.44, a level that had not been seen since early October. Traders see the Chinese supply constraint as a short‑term catalyst, but the rally remains vulnerable to broader macro forces, especially the US dollar.
Dollar dynamics and the upcoming US CPI
Strong US jobs data on Friday kept the dollar index near recent highs, pressuring copper lower. On Monday the dollar eased, allowing copper to recover from the 50‑day simple moving average (SMA) at $6.64 and bounce toward the $6.20 support zone.
The market now eyes the US CPI report scheduled for Nov 13, 2026. A hotter‑than‑expected inflation reading could reinforce the dollar, re‑imposing downside pressure on copper and testing the $6.24 floor. Conversely, a softer CPI could weaken the dollar, giving the metal room to break above $6.64 and aim for the next resistance near $6.80.
Read also: Bitcoin slides below $75,000, gold holds above $4,100 as US CPI looms
Technical landscape and key levels
On the daily chart, copper slipped below the 50‑day SMA at $6.64 and found temporary support near $6.20. The RSI remains below its midline, indicating short‑term bearish momentum, though it has been confined between 30 and 70 throughout 2026.
Longer‑term charts show a strong ascending channel that has provided support around $6.00 since 2002. The monthly trend line, drawn from March 2020 lows, also marks $6.00 as a pivotal level; a break below could open a path toward the $5.20 long‑term support identified on the quarterly chart.
Outlook for traders
If copper can sustain a close above the $6.64 SMA, the next target lies near the $6.80‑$6.95 range, where the top of the current ascending channel sits. A decisive break below $6.24 would likely trigger a move toward $6.00, and a further breach of $5.80 could accelerate a decline toward $5.20.
- Key support: $6.20‑$6.00 (daily/monthly)
- Key resistance: $6.64 (50‑day SMA) and $6.80‑$6.95 (ascending channel)
- Long‑term support: $5.20
Frequently asked questions
Why did copper rise to $6.44 on Nov 9, 2026?
Copper rebounded to $6.44 because Chinese warehouse stocks dropped 24.1% to 33,848 tonnes, the lowest since Jan 2024, while smelter maintenance limited domestic supply and import premiums hit $220 per tonne.
How could the US CPI release affect copper prices?
If the US CPI on Nov 13, 2026 shows hotter inflation, the dollar index may strengthen, pressuring copper and testing the $6.24 support. A softer CPI could weaken the dollar, allowing copper to move above the $6.64 50‑day SMA and target higher resistance levels.
Official data sources
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This article is compiled from international market news for information only. It is not investment advice.