Copper supply risks grow as Chile output falls, price under $14,000
ITF Team4 min read
Copper prices slipped below USD 14,000 per ton on 3/11/2026 as Chile's output forecast drops 8.4% and US imports stay strong at 207,000 tons.
Key takeaways
- Chile’s Cochilco cut 2026 copper production forecast by 8.4% to 4.94 million tons on 3/11/2026.
- US copper imports reached 207,000 tons in October 2026, according to IHS Markit.
- Copper futures fell below USD 14,000 per ton, a seven‑week low, on 3/11/2026.
- Tech‑stock selling and broader risk aversion weighed on copper despite strong US demand.
Copper prices slipped below the USD 14,000 per ton mark on Thursday, 3 November 2026, as the world’s largest copper‑producing nation, Chile, reported a sharp production downgrade. Commerzbank’s commodity team highlighted that third‑quarter output hit a two‑decade low, prompting Cochilco to revise its 2026 forecast down 8.4 % to 4.94 million tons. The downgrade comes amid persistently strong US import demand, with 207,000 tons arriving in October, yet the metal continues to slide amid heightened risk aversion and a sell‑off in technology stocks.
Chile’s output slump deepens the supply deficit
Cochilco’s latest outlook replaces an earlier modest 0.6 % decline with an 8.4 % contraction for 2026. The revised figure of 4.94 million tons represents the lowest quarterly production since 2006, underscoring operational challenges at major mines and labor disruptions that have lingered through the year. For 2027, the commission only sees a modest 3 % rebound to just under 5.1 million tons, far short of the previous 5.55 million‑ton estimate.
The supply squeeze is significant because Chile accounts for roughly 28 % of global copper supply. A drop of this magnitude tightens the market, especially as demand from renewable‑energy projects and electric‑vehicle manufacturers remains robust. Traders watch the Chilean data closely; any further revision could reignite bullish sentiment, but the current outlook keeps the market on the defensive side.
US import demand provides a counterbalance
Despite the Chilean setback, the United States continues to absorb copper at a vigorous pace. IHS Markit reported that October imports reached 207,000 tons, a level that supports the downstream demand chain, from wiring to electronics. This import strength reflects ongoing infrastructure spending and the sustained rollout of green‑energy initiatives that rely heavily on copper conductors.
However, the import data has not translated into higher prices. The market perceives the US demand as a short‑term cushion rather than a long‑term solution to a structural supply gap. Moreover, the dollar‑denominated price of copper is sensitive to broader risk sentiment; when investors shy away from riskier assets, even solid demand can be outweighed by a flight to safety.
Read also: Gold pulls back as selling resumes on Nov 3 2026
Risk aversion and tech‑stock weakness drag copper lower
The price decline coincided with a broader sell‑off in technology equities, a sector that traditionally consumes large volumes of copper for chips, wiring, and data‑center equipment. As tech stocks lose momentum, fund managers reduce exposure to copper‑linked instruments, adding to the downward pressure.
In addition, heightened geopolitical uncertainty surrounding the upcoming US mid‑term elections has amplified risk aversion across asset classes. Investors are rotating into safe‑haven assets such as the US dollar and Treasury bonds, further suppressing commodity prices that are typically seen as more volatile.
Key price levels and what traders watch next
The USD 14,000 per ton threshold now acts as a psychological support level. If copper can hold above this mark, a bounce toward the USD 15,000 level—seen as the next resistance from earlier in the year—could be plausible, especially if Chile announces any production recovery or if US import data improves further.
Conversely, a break below USD 13,500 would signal deeper weakness and could open the path toward the USD 12,800 zone, where the metal found support in mid‑2025. Market participants will also monitor upcoming data releases, including the International Copper Study Group’s monthly supply‑demand balance and the US Manufacturing PMI, both of which influence copper’s industrial demand outlook.
- 3 Nov 2026 – Copper price falls below USD 14,000/ton
- 4.94 million tons – Cochilco’s 2026 production forecast
- 207,000 tons – US copper imports in Oct 2026
- Tech‑stock sell‑off and election‑related risk aversion weigh on copper
FAQ
Q: Why did copper prices drop even though US imports were strong? A: US imports of 207,000 tons in October show solid demand, but copper is also highly sensitive to risk sentiment. On 3 Nov 2026, heightened risk aversion from tech‑stock selling and uncertainty around US mid‑term elections outweighed the import support, pushing prices below USD 14,000 per ton.
Q: How significant is the 8.4 % production cut for Chile? A: The cut reduces Chile’s 2026 output to 4.94 million tons, the lowest quarterly level in two decades. Since Chile supplies about 28 % of global copper, the reduction tightens global supply and contributes to the bearish backdrop for prices.
Q: What price level could act as next support if copper falls further? A: If the metal breaks the USD 14,000 barrier, the next notable support is around USD 13,500, with a deeper floor near USD 12,800, a level that held during the mid‑2025 correction.
Official data sources
Related news
- Gold pulls back as selling resumes on Nov 3 2026
- What i am watching today – nasdaq 100, platinum, eur/chf, and aud/jpy
- Silver price falls below $50.50 after US raid on Iran's Qeshm Island
- Metals.io launches copper‑backed tokens stored in Germany
More from ITF
This article is compiled from international market news for information only. It is not investment advice.