The euro nudges higher to around 1.1195 as the dollar slips near 101.73 on the DXY, while traders weigh US political risk and upcoming data releases.

The euro rose modestly to about 1.1195 against the US dollar during Tuesday’s European session, as the greenback slipped to near 101.73 on the US Dollar Index. The move reflects growing caution ahead of the United States midterm elections, where betting markets give Democrats a 70‑72% chance of capturing both chambers.

Political risk and dollar outlook

• ING analyst Chris Turner sees a Democratic sweep as a potential trigger for lower dollar levels, citing possible debt‑ceiling gridlock, a prolonged government shutdown and a more activist foreign‑policy stance from President Trump.
• The dollar remains supported by solid US growth, inflation above target and ongoing Fed tightening, keeping the DXY around the 102.00 area.

Key data on the horizon

• US JOLTS job openings for September are due at 15:00 GMT, with estimates of 7.13 million vacancies, slightly above August’s 7.097 million.
• Eurozone preliminary HICP for October will be released on Wednesday; YoY inflation is expected at 3.9% and core HICP at 2.5%, data that could shape ECB policy expectations.

Technical picture

• On the daily chart EUR/USD sits at 1.1187, below the 20‑day EMA of 1.1214, preserving a short‑term bearish bias.
• Resistance sits at the 20‑day EMA; a clear break would be needed for a more constructive rally, while the RSI around 42 suggests downside pressure is easing but not yet oversold.

What traders are watching next

• A decisive break above 1.1214 could shift sentiment toward a recovery.
• If the pair falls back toward recent lows, sellers may regain momentum.
• Watch the JOLTS release and Eurozone HICP numbers for fresh catalysts.

Related news

• US midterm elections raise dollar liquidity risks, says Danske Bank
• Rba hikes cash rate to 4.85%, highest since 2008
• Half of office workers feel remote, NY Fed survey shows
• Silver price falls below $50.50 after US raid on Iran's Qeshm Island

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This article is compiled from international market news for information only. It is not investment advice.