BBH analyst Elias Haddad expects the Fed to hold rates at 3.75‑4.00% with a 9‑3 vote, but inflation concerns leave a December hike possible, supporting the dollar.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad expects the Federal Open Market Committee to leave the federal‑funds target range unchanged at 3.75‑4.00% in today’s meeting. Futures price only a modest 10% chance of a move, and most Fed officials have signalled patience after the 25‑basis‑point hike in September.

Vote split and inflation outlook

Haddad projects a 9‑3 vote to hold, with dissent from Beth M. Hammack, Neel Kashkari and Lorie K. Logan – the same trio that pushed for a hike in July. Chair Kevin Warsh is likely to repeat that inflation remains too high and underlying price pressures have not eased, keeping a December hike in play.

Market reaction

• Crude oil nudges toward recent highs, modestly weighing on bonds
• U.S. equity futures tick higher
• The dollar index (DXY) hovers near its October 14 intraday high of 102.95, bolstered by strong U.S. data and price pressures

What traders are watching

Key levels to monitor are the DXY’s 103.00 ceiling and the 102.80 support. Traders will also watch the Fed’s statement for any language on inflation durability and the upcoming BoJ policy decision on Friday, which could influence USD/JPY. Finally, the next batch of U.S. economic releases – payrolls and CPI – will test the dollar’s momentum ahead of a potential December rate move.

Related news

• Fed holds rates steady, bitcoin barely moves as December hike looms
• Gold slips toward $4,000 as oil above $100 clouds Fed outlook
• Obr downgrades uk growth forecast for 2027 despite healey budget
• Bitcoin and gold hold near key levels ahead of Fed decision

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This article is compiled from international market news for information only. It is not investment advice.