Gold near $4,100 ahead of US NFP data
ITF Team3 min read
Gold climbs to a two‑week high around $4,085 on Friday, 5 Nov 2026, as a softer dollar and falling oil boost the metal ahead of the US September jobs report.
Key takeaways
- Gold rose to about $4,085 on 5 Nov 2026, its highest level in more than two weeks.
- The US dollar weakened and oil prices fell, helping lift gold during the early Asian session.
- CME FedWatch shows a 70.9% probability of a Fed rate hike in December.
- The September NFP is forecast at +65,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.2%.
Gold (XAU/USD) surged to a little above $4,085 on Friday, 5 Nov 2026, marking its strongest level in over two weeks. The rally was driven by a weaker US dollar and a drop in oil prices, both of which tend to support the yellow metal. Traders are now eyeing the US September employment report, due later that day, for clues on the Federal Reserve’s next policy move.
Price action and market drivers
During the early Asian session, spot gold jumped roughly 3 % from the previous day, reclaiming the $4,000 psychological barrier. The move coincided with the US dollar index slipping below 103.00 and crude oil prices sliding below $80 a barrel after the Democratic sweep of the US mid‑term elections. The political outcome reduced expectations of further fiscal expansion, prompting a sell‑off in risk assets and a flight to safe‑haven gold.
High‑frequency traders cited the Democratic win as a catalyst for lower energy prices, which in turn eased inflation concerns. David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures, noted that while rate‑hike expectations have not vanished, the weaker energy market is lowering inflation fears and could diminish the need for aggressive tightening later in the year.
Fed expectations and the NFP focus
CME’s FedWatch tool currently assigns a 70.9 % probability to a 25‑basis‑point rate hike at the Fed’s December meeting. Higher rates raise the opportunity cost of holding non‑yielding gold, so any signal that the Fed may pause or cut could further buoy the metal.
The September Non‑Farm Payrolls (NFP) report is expected to show an addition of 65,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2 %. A stronger‑than‑expected payroll figure could lift the dollar, pressuring gold lower, while a weaker reading would likely reinforce the current bullish bias.
Read also: Yen rises on BoJ minutes as US NFP looms
Technical landscape
On the daily chart, gold is trading just above the 20‑day Bollinger middle band at about $4,070 and remains below the 100‑day simple moving average (SMA) near $4,200. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 49.6, indicating neutral momentum. The price is therefore in a corrective phase within a broader uptrend.
Key resistance levels are the 100‑day SMA at $4,200 and the upper Bollinger band around $4,250. Support is anchored at the 20‑day Bollinger middle band near $4,070, with a deeper cushion at the lower Bollinger band close to $3,895. A break below $3,895 would likely trigger a short‑term bearish swing.
Implications for traders
The current environment suggests that gold’s next move will hinge on two variables: the direction of the US dollar after the NFP release and the market’s perception of Fed tightening risk. A softer dollar and continued low‑yield environment would support further advances toward the $4,200 barrier.
Conversely, a robust payroll surprise could revitalize the dollar, push Treasury yields higher, and cap gold’s upside. Traders should monitor real‑yield spreads, USD index movements, oil price trends, and ETF inflows for early signs of changing sentiment.
- Watch the US NFP release at 8:30 a.m. ET (13:30 GMT).
- Track the USD index for any rebound above 103.00.
- Observe Treasury 10‑year yields; a rise above 4.5 % could pressure gold.
- Note oil price moves; a sustained dip below $80 may keep inflation expectations low.
Frequently asked questions
Why did gold rise to near $4,100 on 5 Nov 2026?
Gold jumped to about $4,085 because the US dollar weakened and oil prices fell after the Democrats won control of Congress, which lowered expectations of further Fed rate hikes and boosted safe‑haven demand.
How could the US September NFP report affect gold’s price?
If the NFP shows stronger‑than‑expected job growth, the dollar may strengthen and Treasury yields could rise, weighing on gold. A weaker payroll figure would keep the dollar soft and support further gold gains.
What technical levels are important for gold right now?
Resistance is at the 100‑day SMA near $4,200 and the upper Bollinger band around $4,250. Support sits at the 20‑day Bollinger middle band near $4,070, with deeper support near $3,895.
Official data sources
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This article is compiled from international market news for information only. It is not investment advice.