Gold rebounds above $4,100 despite strong US NFP data
ITF Team2 min read
Gold climbs back to around $4,100 on Monday as speculation over a Democrat‑led push to end the Iran war offsets strong US jobs data that lifted the dollar.
Key takeaways
- Gold recovered to near $4,100 in early Asian trade on 11/9/2026.
- US non‑farm payrolls added 165,000 jobs in October, beating estimates of 65,000.
- CME FedWatch odds of a December rate hike rose to 79.6% after the jobs report.
- Democrats are expected to trim the US defence budget to about $1 trillion, fueling hopes for a de‑escalation in Iran.
Gold (XAU/USD) bounced back to roughly $4,100 during the early Asian session on Monday, 9 November 2026. The rally was driven by market chatter that a newly empowered Democratic Congress may push for an end to the war with Iran, offsetting the bullish pressure from a surprisingly strong US employment report.
Strong US payrolls lift the dollar and Treasury yields
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 165,000 jobs added in October, far above the 65,000 forecast and up from 60,000 in September. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1% from 4.2%. The data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve could keep rates higher for longer, pushing the CME FedWatch probability of a December hike to 79.6% from 72.8%.
Higher rates raise the opportunity cost of holding a non‑yielding asset like gold, while a stronger dollar typically drags the metal lower. In the wake of the payrolls surprise, the greenback rallied and Treasury yields edged higher, creating a ceiling for gold’s upside.
Political speculation adds a safe‑haven boost
Democrats, having secured majorities in both chambers, are openly opposing President Trump’s $1.5 trillion defence budget. Sources say they would likely approve a budget near $1 trillion to avoid appearing to fund continued hostilities with Iran. This political narrative has revived gold’s safe‑haven appeal, with traders viewing a potential de‑escalation as a risk‑off catalyst.
Independent metals trader Tai Wong described the move as a “litmus test for this week’s rally,” noting that gold’s lower gap after the payroll shock is now being closed as sentiment shifts toward geopolitical caution.
Read also: AUD/USD holds gains after China CPI data
Technical picture: capped below the 100‑day SMA
On the daily chart gold sits just under the 100‑day simple moving average at $4,200, a key resistance zone. The price is marginally above the 20‑day Bollinger middle band ($4,065) but below the upper band near $4,225, indicating limited upside momentum. The RSI sits at 50.3, a neutral reading that suggests the bounce lacks strong conviction.
Support is found around $4,095, with the next deeper level near $3,900 if sellers gain strength. Analysts at OCBC note that the metal’s resilience after a sharp equity sell‑off is encouraging, but warn that further equity weakness could trigger liquidity‑driven selling of gold.
What to watch next
Traders will focus on the upcoming US CPI release on Tuesday, which could reshape inflation expectations and Fed rate forecasts. A softer CPI number may temper the market’s rate‑hike bias, weaken the dollar and give gold more room to climb. Conversely, a sticky inflation reading could reinforce the current bearish bias.
- US CPI data – Tuesday, 11/13/2026
- US non‑farm payrolls – Friday, 11/6/2026 (already released)
- Key technical levels: resistance $4,200‑$4,225; support $4,095 and $3,900
Frequently asked questions
Why did gold rise despite the strong US jobs report?
The October payrolls surprise lifted the dollar and Treasury yields, which normally pressures gold. However, market speculation that a Democrat‑controlled Congress will push to end the Iran war revived safe‑haven demand, allowing gold to claw back toward $4,100.
What technical barrier could stop gold from moving higher?
Gold is trading below its 100‑day simple moving average at $4,200. The upper Bollinger band around $4,225 and the 100‑day SMA form a resistance zone that must be broken for a sustained bullish move.
Official data sources
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This article is compiled from international market news for information only. It is not investment advice.