Gold stalls below $4,150 as US dollar regains ground on Nov 5, 2026
ITF Team3 min read
Gold slipped to around $4,119 on Nov 5, 2026 as the US dollar index rose to 101.60 and 10‑year Treasury yields edged up to 4.89%, while traders await US jobs data.
Key takeaways
- Gold was trading near $4,119 on Nov 5, 2026, after peaking at $4,146 earlier in the day.
- The US dollar index recovered to about 101.60, while the 10‑year Treasury yield rose to 4.89% on the same day.
- Traders are awaiting US Initial Jobless Claims and the Nonfarm Payrolls report, scheduled for Thursday and Friday respectively.
- The CME FedWatch Tool showed roughly 79% probability of a December rate hike as of Nov 5, 2026.
Gold (XAU/USD) stalled its rebound on Thursday, Nov 5, 2026, as the US dollar index (DXY) regained momentum and Treasury yields rose. At the time of writing the metal was around $4,119, down from an intraday high of $4,146 – the highest level seen in two weeks.
The pause came after a dramatic 3.64% surge on Wednesday, a move that was fueled by the fallout from the US mid‑term elections. A Democratic sweep of Congress raised expectations that funding for the Trump‑led military campaign against Iran could be curtailed, easing geopolitical risk and prompting a sharp 8% drop in West Texas Intermediate crude.
Why the dollar and yields turned higher
The US dollar index climbed back to roughly 101.60 after briefly slipping to 101.20. The recovery was supported by a modest rise in the 10‑year Treasury yield, which moved up to 4.89% from a low of 4.83% earlier in the session. A more divided government reduces the likelihood of new tax cuts or large spending packages, encouraging investors to buy Treasuries and push yields lower – a dynamic that initially weakened the dollar but has now reversed as yields edged higher.
Higher yields increase the real cost of holding a non‑yielding asset like gold, raising its opportunity cost. At the same time, the Fed’s hawkish stance remains a key headwind. The CME FedWatch Tool still priced a 79% chance of a December rate hike, keeping expectations for elevated borrowing costs alive.
Technical picture – moving averages as the new battleground
On the daily chart gold sits just below its medium‑ and long‑term trend lines. The 21‑day simple moving average (SMA) at $4,077 acts as immediate support, while the 50‑day and 100‑day SMAs cluster around $4,203‑$4,205, forming the next resistance zone. A decisive close above these levels would be needed to shift the prevailing bearish bias.
Momentum indicators show a modest recovery: the Relative Strength Index hovers near 51 and the MACD has turned positive, hinting at a potential re‑accumulation of buying pressure. However, the broader structure remains bearish, with the 200‑day SMA near $4,468 serving as a long‑term ceiling.
Read also: Bank of England hikes rate to 4% as inflation outlook nears 5%
Fundamental backdrop – elections, oil and inflation expectations
The mid‑term election outcome removed some of the fiscal‑expansion risk that had been priced into markets. With a divided Congress, new tax cuts or large spending bills appear less likely, supporting Treasury buying and keeping real yields modest. At the same time, oil prices remain well above pre‑war levels, keeping inflation concerns alive and reinforcing the Fed’s commitment to a 2% target.
OCBC strategists described the market as “cautiously optimistic,” noting that further gold gains would likely require a moderation in Fed tightening expectations and a sustained recovery in investment demand. They continue to monitor real yields, USD direction, oil prices and ETF flows for clues on buying interest.
What to watch next
All eyes now turn to US labour market data. Initial jobless claims are due later on Thursday, followed by the Non‑farm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. A stronger‑than‑expected payrolls number could reinforce expectations of a December rate hike, putting additional pressure on gold. Conversely, weaker data may revive risk appetite and support the metal.
- US Initial Jobless Claims – Thursday, Nov 5, 2026
- US Non‑farm Payrolls – Friday, Nov 6, 2026
- Potential US dollar index moves above 102 if yields keep rising
- Gold’s 50‑day SMA at $4,203 as a key resistance level
Frequently asked questions
Why did gold retreat after Wednesday’s big rally?
Gold fell back to about $4,119 on Nov 5, 2026 because the US dollar index recovered to around 101.60 and the 10‑year Treasury yield rose to 4.89%, raising the opportunity cost of holding a non‑yielding metal.
How does the US mid‑term election affect gold?
The Democratic sweep of Congress reduced expectations of new fiscal stimulus, encouraging Treasury buying and keeping real yields modest, which initially supported gold. However, the same political outcome also removed some geopolitical risk, leading to a sharp drop in oil and a temporary weakening of gold’s rally.
Official data sources
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This article is compiled from international market news for information only. It is not investment advice.