Usd index hits fresh 19‑month high as gold slips below $4,000
ITF Team2 min read
On Nov 12, 2026 the US Dollar Index rose above 103, its highest since Apr 2025, while gold fell to around $3,960, a weekly low, amid strong inflation data and Fed hawkishness.
Key takeaways
- The US Dollar Index traded above 103.00 on Nov 12, 2026 – its highest level since April 2025.
- Gold fell to about $3,960 in the European session, a weekly low and the first dip below $4,000 since early November.
- CME FedWatch Tool shows a 62% probability of a 50‑bp Fed hike in the next two meetings, up from 10% a week earlier.
- USD/JPY hovered near 160.00, its highest since early September, while GBP/USD slipped to around 1.3250, a near‑one‑month low.
The US Dollar Index surged past the 103.00 mark on Thursday, Nov 12, 2026, reaching its strongest level since April 2025. The rally was driven by hotter‑than‑expected US inflation data and increasingly hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials, which lifted expectations of further rate hikes.
Dollar strength across major pairs
Across the week the greenback posted gains against all major currencies, with the strongest performance against the Swiss franc. EUR/USD slipped below 1.1100, its weakest since May 2025, while GBP/USD hovered near 1.3250, its lowest in almost a month despite upbeat UK growth data. The pair’s resilience was limited by the dollar’s momentum.
USD/JPY stayed near 160.00, a level not seen since early September, after a 0.7% jump on Wednesday. Japanese BoJ board member Toichiro Asada warned that premature rate hikes could curb underlying inflation, yet a rise in Japan’s producer price index to +0.7% in October added support to the yen.
Fed rate‑hike expectations reshape market pricing
The CME FedWatch Tool now assigns a 62% chance that the Fed will raise its policy rate by a total of 50 basis points over the next two meetings, a sharp rise from the 10% probability recorded a week earlier. MUFG analysts note that while a 50‑bp move is being debated, they still favor a more modest 25‑bp increase, pending the upcoming payroll report.
Higher rate‑hike odds have pushed the 10‑year Treasury yield to stay around 5% after three days of gains, reinforcing the dollar’s appeal to investors seeking yield, and keeping US stock index futures in negative territory despite a brief rally on Wednesday.
Read also: Gold price forecast: can XAUUSD hold $3,944 as Fed hike bets rise?
Gold under pressure from a stronger dollar
Gold’s price dropped more than 2.5% since the start of the week, reaching roughly $3,960 in the European session – a new weekly low and the first breach of the $4,000 threshold in over a week. The metal’s decline mirrors the dollar’s rally, as higher real yields make non‑yielding assets less attractive.
In addition to Fed‑driven dollar strength, geopolitical tension in the Middle East added safe‑haven demand for the greenback, further squeezing gold. The metal’s slide suggests that any retreat in inflation or a softer Fed stance would be needed to revive its upward momentum.
What to watch next
Traders will focus on Thursday’s US weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Existing Home Sales data, which could confirm or challenge the inflation narrative. The next major US payroll report and the Fed’s FOMC meeting in early December remain key catalysts for both the dollar and gold.
- US initial jobless claims (Nov 12)
- US existing home sales (Nov 12)
- US non‑farm payrolls (Dec 2026)
- Fed policy meeting (Dec 2026)
Frequently asked questions
Why did the US Dollar Index reach a 19‑month high on Nov 12, 2026?
The index rose above 103 because hot US inflation data and hawkish comments from Fed officials lifted market expectations of a 50‑basis‑point rate hike in the next two meetings, pushing the probability to 62% from 10% a week earlier.
What caused gold to fall below $4,000 on the same day?
Gold slipped to around $3,960 as the stronger dollar raised real yields, making gold less attractive. The move was reinforced by Fed‑driven dollar strength and heightened Middle‑East geopolitical risk, both of which boosted safe‑haven demand for the US currency.
Official data sources
Related news
- Gold price forecast: can XAUUSD hold $3,944 as Fed hike bets rise?
- Usd/jpy approaches 160 as fed speakers and us ppi loom
- UK GDP Q3 growth expected at 0.7% and its impact on GBP/USD
- AUD/USD near 10‑month low as Fed hawkish outlook strengthens dollar
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This article is compiled from international market news for information only. It is not investment advice.