Aud/usd trades near 0.7020, modestly lower, as traders await the rba’s expected 25‑bp hike and watch the 100‑day ema for direction.

The australian dollar against the us dollar slipped about 0.15% in early asian trading, hovering around the 0.7020 level. While the pair remains above the psychologically important 0.7000 mark, market participants are largely holding back from new directional bets until the reserve bank of australia (rba) announces its policy decision on Tuesday.

Fundamental backdrop

• The rba is widely expected to raise rates by 25 basis points at its november meeting, reflecting stubborn inflation pressures.
• China’s latest official pmi numbers came in weaker than hoped, adding a modest drag on the aussie.
• Geopolitical uncertainties continue to support the safe‑haven usd, weighing on risk‑sensitive currencies such as the aud.

Technical picture

• Price is capped below the 100‑day exponential moving average (ema) at 0.7046 and sits under the 38.2% fibonacci retracement at 0.7026, signalling waning upward momentum.
• Momentum indicators are mixed: macd stays above its signal line and is slightly positive, while the rsi hovers near the neutral 50 level.
• A break below 0.7000 could find support at the 23.6% retracement (0.6976) and, if deeper, near the structural low of 0.6894.
• On the upside, resistance lines sit at 0.7026 (38.2% fib), 0.7067 (50% fib), 0.7107 (61.8% fib), 0.7165 (78.6% fib) and the recent high of 0.7239.

What traders are watching

• Whether the rba delivers the anticipated 25‑bp hike or signals a more dovish stance will likely move aud/usd sharply.
• Key technical levels: 0.7000 psychological barrier, 0.6976 support, and 0.7067 resistance.
• Any fresh data on china’s manufacturing activity or shifts in usd safe‑haven demand could also influence the pair before the rba meeting.

Related news

• Silver price edges higher at $50, eyes next resistance
• China private factory PMI at 52.0 beats forecast, output fastest since April
• Gold rebounds to near $3,900 as rate‑hike odds stay high
• Australian dollar softens below 0.7050 on risk‑off mood

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This article is compiled from international market news for information only. It is not investment advice.