AUD/USD hovers around 0.6925 on Nov 10, 2026, with focus shifting to the US CPI report that could shape Fed rate expectations and RBA outlook.

The Australian dollar stayed near 0.6925 against the US dollar on Nov 10, 2026, as market participants turned their attention to the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release for October. The pair’s range‑bound action reflects uncertainty over how the inflation data could influence both Federal Reserve policy and Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) expectations.

Price action and technical outlook

On the daily chart, AUD/USD is perched just above the recent up‑trend support around 0.6914, while the 20‑day exponential moving average (EMA) at 0.6977 acts as a near‑term ceiling. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits in the low‑40s, indicating weak momentum and suggesting that any rally will face resistance unless the price closes above the EMA.

If the pair can break and hold above 0.6977, bearish pressure may ease and the next resistance would lie near the 0.7020‑0.7040 zone. Conversely, a clear break below 0.6914 would open the path to lower support at 0.6860 and could reinforce the current soft tone for the Aussie.

Fundamental drivers: US CPI and Fed expectations

The headline US CPI for October is expected to rise to 3.9% year‑on‑year, up from 3.7% in the previous month, while core CPI is projected at 2.8% versus 2.6% previously. Although the data could move the dollar, analysts expect limited impact on Fed policy unless the numbers deviate sharply, given that global inflation expectations have already loosened amid falling oil prices.

The CME FedWatch tool shows an 84.2% probability that the Fed will raise its policy rate by 25 basis points to the 4.00%‑4.25% range at the December meeting, up from 77.4% a week earlier. This hawkish tilt follows a strong US Non‑Farm Payrolls report that added 165,000 jobs in October, well above the 65,000 forecast.

Read also: NZD/USD eyes break above 0.5640‑0.5645 ahead of US CPI

RBA outlook and local data

Australian traders are also watching the Consumer Inflation Expectations survey for November, due Thursday. RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser warned that inflation remains too high, reinforcing expectations that the central bank may keep rates elevated. The upcoming Australian data could shape the AUD’s direction in the days after the US CPI release.

In the meantime, the Aussie remains defensive near the 0.6900 level, a zone that previously acted as both support and resistance during the narrowing of China’s trade surplus and the recent uptick in Fed rate‑hike bets.

What to watch next

Key levels to monitor are 0.6977 (20‑day EMA) for a bullish breakout and 0.6914 for a potential downside breach. Traders should also keep an eye on the US CPI release at 13:30 GMT on Nov 11 and the Australian inflation expectations data on Nov 12, as both could trigger short‑term volatility.

• US headline CPI (Oct) forecast: 3.9% YoY
• Core CPI (Oct) forecast: 2.8% YoY
• CME FedWatch probability of Dec hike: 84.2%
• RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser’s comment on high inflation

Frequently asked questions

Official data sources

• U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
• Reserve Bank of Australia
• Federal Reserve (Fed)

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• Bitcoin slips below $75,000 ahead of US CPI data
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This article is compiled from international market news for information only. It is not investment advice.