Analysts say Treasury yields, the dollar and upcoming inflation data will shape Bitcoin’s next move as traders price a 78% chance of a December rate hike.

Bitcoin’s recent rally hit a wall at the 50‑day trend line, just as the market braces for the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decision. While the cryptocurrency briefly surged toward $82,000, analysts note that the bounce was quickly rejected, leaving the digital asset vulnerable to broader macro forces.

Macro backdrop and market pricing

• Traders are assigning a 78% probability to a rate hike in December, according to options‑based pricing models.
• Higher Treasury yields and a firming U.S. dollar are cited as headwinds for Bitcoin’s upside.
• The next U.S. inflation report could provide a decisive cue for the crypto’s direction.

Institutional flows and infrastructure developments

• Bitcoin ETFs attracted $176 million of net inflows as the price reclaimed the $80,000 level.
• Morgan Stanley’s strategist sees most of the correction behind the market, targeting a potential $82,000 level.
• Google Cloud announced a new multi‑party computation (MPC) service aimed at institutional custody of Bitcoin, signaling growing infrastructure support.

What traders are watching next

• Key resistance at the 50‑day trend line around $81,500; a break could reopen the path to $85,000.
• Upcoming U.S. inflation data and the Fed’s December meeting for clues on rate trajectory.
• Potential regulatory moves after Euronext halted CoinShares’ Zcash ETP, which may affect sentiment toward crypto‑linked products.

Related news

• Ethereum gains 1% after Fed holds rates, Coinbase premium stays negative
• Gold slips after Fed holds rates, pce inflation data in focus
• Usd/jpy returns below 158 after fed's decision
• Pound back above 1.33 after Fed holds rates

More from ITF

• ITF trading signals for gold and forex
• Copy verified traders with ITF Copy Trading
• This week’s economic calendar

This article is compiled from international market news for information only. It is not investment advice.