Usd/jpy slipped back below 158 as fed chair warsh signaled steady inflation outlook, while japan's cpi and boj meeting loom.

The yen regained some ground on Wednesday, pulling usd/jpy back just under the 158.00 mark after a brief surge above that level during the fed's policy announcement. The pair had climbed above 158.00 in the run‑up to the decision and peaked just shy of 158.50 as fed chair warsh began his press conference, but gave back those gains as the chair emphasized that most fed officials do not see the us economy overheating.

Fed hold and market reaction

The fed kept its policy rate in the 3.75‑4.00% range, matching expectations, and warsh noted that faster growth does not automatically translate into higher inflation. The news did not add further upside to usd/jpy, which retreated to a session low just above 157.50 before stabilising near 157.95. The move followed an earlier october 22‑23 drop that was amplified by a global tech‑stock sell‑off, prompting traders to unwind yen‑borrowed positions.

Japanese data and boj outlook

Attention now turns to japan's upcoming economic releases. Tokyo's october cpi, due at 23:30 gmt, is expected to show a core inflation rate of 2.6% after a 2.7% reading previously, while the unemployment rate is projected to stay at 2.5%. The bank of japan's policy decision on friday, accompanied by a quarterly outlook report at 03:00 gmt and a governor ueda press briefing at 06:30 gmt, remains highly priced for a hold, with roughly an 86% probability. Traders are watching the timing of the next rate hike and the impact on the yen‑dollar yield gap.

Technical picture

Usd/jpy is trading between its 50‑day and 200‑day exponential moving averages, which sit about a fifth of a yen apart. Since the start of october the pair has oscillated between just above 156.00 and just under 159.00, with the october 23 low marking the bottom of that range. The current position near the lower EMA suggests limited upside unless risk sentiment shifts sharply.

What traders are watching

• U.S. q3 gdp and september inflation data at 12:30 gmt
• Tokyo october cpi (core) at 23:30 gmt
• BoJ policy decision and outlook report on friday (03:00 gmt)
• Potential yen‑safe‑haven flows if market stress returns

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This article is compiled from international market news for information only. It is not investment advice.