Bitcoin falls as US inflation fuels Fed rate‑hike fears
ITF Team3 min read
Bitcoin slipped below $74,000 on 11/10/2026 after October CPI rose 0.4%, pushing odds of a 50‑bp Fed hike in December to about 15%.
Key takeaways
- Bitcoin fell to roughly $73,525 on 11/10/2026 after the CPI report.
- October CPI rose 0.4% month‑over‑month, 0.1 point above forecasts.
- Leveraged crypto long positions saw $178 million liquidated within an hour of the release.
- Market odds of a 50‑bp Fed hike in December rose to nearly 15% after Fed Governor Waller’s comments.
Bitcoin dropped below $74,000 on Thursday, 11/10/2026, after the U.S. Consumer Price Index for October came in hotter than expected. The headline CPI rose 0.4% month‑over‑month, outpacing the 0.3% consensus, while core CPI climbed 0.3%, also above the 0.2% forecast. The data reignited speculation that the Federal Reserve could raise its policy rate by 50 basis points at the December meeting, pushing market odds for such a move to almost 15%.
Immediate market reaction and price dynamics
Bitcoin was trading near $74,200 before the inflation release and briefly slid to about $73,525 in the minutes that followed. The cryptocurrency recovered part of the loss but closed the 24‑hour period roughly 1% lower, still under the $74,000 mark. Ethereum mirrored the move, slipping toward $2,040, and other altcoins experienced similar selling pressure.
The sharp sell‑off triggered roughly $178 million of leveraged long liquidations across major exchanges within an hour. Forced margin calls amplified price declines, a pattern often seen when high‑leverage positions are unwound in volatile markets.
Why inflation data matters for crypto
Higher inflation typically leads the Fed to tighten monetary policy. When the central bank raises rates, yields on U.S. Treasury bonds rise, making fixed‑income assets more attractive relative to non‑yielding assets like Bitcoin. As borrowing costs increase, the supply of cheap capital that fuels speculative buying shrinks, putting downward pressure on risk‑on assets.
Although Bitcoin is sometimes portrayed as an inflation hedge, its price historically reacts negatively to data that suggests a more aggressive Fed stance. The October CPI reading, the third consecutive month of above‑forecast inflation, gave the Fed another reason to keep rates elevated, reinforcing the bearish bias for crypto.
Read also: Gold crashes toward $4,000 as US inflation fuels Fed hawkishness
Fed commentary and market expectations
Fed Governor Christopher Waller, speaking in London, said a 50‑basis‑point hike in December “should be considered” even if inflation shows modest improvement. His remarks lifted the probability of a larger move from the prevailing view of a 25‑bp increase. Analysts adjusted their estimates, taking the odds of a 50‑bp hike to nearly 15% by mid‑morning, while a quarter‑point hike remained the most likely outcome.
The Fed’s benchmark rate currently sits in the 3.75%‑4.00% range. A 50‑bp increase would shift the target to 4.25%‑4.50%, raising borrowing costs across the economy and further strengthening the dollar. Treasury yields responded, with the two‑year note posting its biggest rise since April 2025.
Broader crypto market context
Bitcoin entered the week down about 4.5% over seven days, and spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $201 million on Monday, adding to the selling pressure. The combination of weaker ETF inflows, higher Treasury yields, and the CPI surprise created a confluence of bearish factors that kept Bitcoin below its October highs.
Liquidations and the lack of fresh institutional demand suggest that the market may need a clearer signal of cooling inflation before a sustained rally can resume. Traders will be watching the upcoming December CPI report (due 12/10/2026) and the Fed’s final policy meeting on 12/8‑9 for clues.
- October CPI: +0.4% MoM (vs. forecast +0.3%)
- Core CPI: +0.3% MoM (vs. forecast +0.2%)
- Bitcoin low: ~$73,525 on 11/10/2026
- Leveraged long liquidations: $178 million in 1 hour
- Odds of 50‑bp Fed hike: ~15% after Waller’s comments
Frequently asked questions
Why did Bitcoin fall after the October CPI report?
The CPI rose 0.4% month‑over‑month, beating expectations and raising the probability of a 50‑basis‑point Fed rate hike in December to about 15%. Higher expected rates make Treasury yields more attractive and reduce cheap capital for speculative crypto buying, pushing Bitcoin below $74,000.
What impact did Fed Governor Waller’s comments have on market expectations?
Waller said a 50‑bp hike could be justified even if inflation eases, which lifted market odds of such a move to nearly 15% from a lower baseline. The comment reinforced the view that the Fed may take a more aggressive stance, adding pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin.
How much was liquidated in crypto markets after the inflation data?
Approximately $178 million of leveraged long positions were automatically closed within an hour of the CPI release, as margin calls forced traders to sell, further depressing prices.
Official data sources
Related news
- Gold crashes toward $4,000 as US inflation fuels Fed hawkishness
- 10-year Treasury yield hits 5% as hot CPI and Waller comments fuel rate‑hike expectations
- October 2026 CPI surprise pushes Fed rate outlook higher
- Solana Jupiter adds token baskets, yield vaults and portfolio upgrades
More from ITF
- ITF trading signals for gold and forex
- Copy verified traders with ITF Copy Trading
- This week’s economic calendar
This article is compiled from international market news for information only. It is not investment advice.