Gold crashes toward $4,000 as US inflation fuels Fed hawkishness
ITF Team2 min read
Gold fell to $4,021, near a $4,146 peak, after October CPI showed 0.4% MoM rise, pushing the 10‑year Treasury yield above 5% on 11/10/2026.
Key takeaways
- Gold slipped to $4,021 on 11/10/2026, down nearly 3% from its intraday high of $4,146.
- October US CPI rose 0.4% month‑over‑month, above the 0.3% forecast.
- The 10‑year US Treasury yield jumped 12 basis points to 5.012%, its highest level since early 2024.
- CME FedWatch Tool shows a 25‑bp December hike priced in at 90% probability, with a 10% chance of a 50‑bp hike.
Gold (XAU/USD) tumbled on Tuesday, 11 Nov 2026, as Federal Reserve officials signalled a willingness to tighten further after a hotter‑than‑expected US consumer‑price report. The metal slipped to $4,021, a near‑four‑day low, after briefly touching $4,146, marking a drop of almost 3%.
Inflation data and Fed rhetoric drive the sell‑off
The October CPI rose 0.4% month‑over‑month, outpacing the 0.3% consensus, while core CPI held at 0.3% MoM, also above the 0.2% forecast. Governor Christopher Waller warned that a 0.3% core reading would justify a 50‑basis‑point hike, and even at the actual 0.4% he hinted at a 25‑bp move, stressing credibility concerns.
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan echoed the tone, suggesting “more rapid rate hikes possibly needed this winter” and noting the policy rate sits about 50 bps below a modestly restrictive level. Markets have already priced a 25‑bp hike for December at roughly 90% probability, with a 10% chance of a larger move, according to CME’s FedWatch.
Dollar strength and Treasury yields amplify pressure
The US Dollar Index surged 0.70% to 102.36 as the greenback rallied on the inflation surprise. Simultaneously, the 10‑year Treasury yield leapt 12 bps to 5.012%, reinforcing the narrative that the Fed will keep tightening, which historically depresses gold, a non‑yielding asset.
Higher real yields make holding gold less attractive, prompting a swift shift of capital into higher‑yielding US Treasuries. The move also nudged other safe‑haven pairs, with USD/JPY retaking the 158.00 level and AUD/USD staying defensive near 0.6900.
Read also: Bitcoin falls as US inflation fuels Fed rate‑hike fears
Technical outlook: $4,000 as the next barrier
On the chart, gold broke below the $4,015 four‑day low and now tests the psychological $4,000 mark. The RSI has turned bearish, suggesting further downside momentum.
If the metal breaks $4,000, the next support lies at the November‑4 daily low of $3,919, followed by the year‑to‑date low of $3,870. Conversely, a rebound above $4,050 could see a short‑term target at $4,100, with the 50‑ and 100‑day SMA cluster around $4,185‑$4,200 acting as resistance.
What to watch next
Traders will focus on the US economic calendar after the Veterans Day holiday. Key releases include weekly jobless claims, housing starts, and further Fed commentary. Any sign that inflation is easing could soften the dollar and give gold a breather, while continued strength in yields would keep pressure on the metal.
- US CPI for October (0.4% MoM) – 11/10/2026
- 10‑yr Treasury yield 5.012% – 11/10/2026
- Gold price $4,021 – 11/10/2026
- CME FedWatch: 25 bp hike 90% probability, 50 bp hike 10%
Frequently asked questions
Why did gold fall below $4,100 on 11 Nov 2026?
The drop was triggered by a hotter‑than‑expected October CPI (0.4% MoM) that pushed the 10‑year Treasury yield above 5%, strengthening the dollar and prompting investors to favour higher‑yielding assets over the non‑yielding gold.
What level could trigger further gold declines?
If gold breaks the $4,000 psychological barrier, the next technical supports are at $3,919 (Nov 4 daily low) and $3,870 (year‑to‑date low), indicating a potential path toward those levels if bearish momentum continues.
Official data sources
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This article is compiled from international market news for information only. It is not investment advice.