Bitcoin price eyes $74K as Fed rate‑hike bets hit 96% after Waller speech
ITF Team3 min read
Bitcoin hovered around $74,280 on Nov 10, 2026 as Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s pledge to support a 0.25% hike pushed December rate‑hike odds to 96.3%, weighing on crypto and stock futures.
Key takeaways
- Bitcoin traded at $74,280.31 on Nov 10, 2026, up 0.19% intraday.
- Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he would vote for a 0.25% rate hike at the Dec. 9 FOMC meeting.
- CME FedWatch odds of a December hike rose from 76.3% to 96.3% after the speech.
- Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 0.4% following the governor’s comments.
Bitcoin (BTC) edged toward the $74,000 level on Thursday, Nov 10, 2026, after Fed Governor Christopher Waller announced he would back a 25‑basis‑point rate increase at the December FOMC meeting. The comment came ahead of the October U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) release and lifted market expectations for a December hike to 96.3% according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
The price move was modest – BTC/USD on Bitstamp peaked at $74,080, a 1.3% dip from the previous day, before closing at $74,280.31, up 0.19% on the session. At the same time, U.S. stock futures turned lower, with Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.4% as investors priced in tighter monetary policy and reduced liquidity for risk assets.
Why Waller’s stance matters for crypto
Federal Reserve officials signal future policy through speeches, and a clear endorsement of a rate hike usually strengthens the dollar while dampening risk‑on assets. Higher rates raise the real yield on Treasury bonds, making them more attractive relative to non‑yielding assets such as Bitcoin. Consequently, crypto prices often retreat when the market anticipates tighter financial conditions.
Waller’s remarks were delivered at the Bank of England Watchers Conference in London, where he emphasized that even a softer CPI print would not change his view. He referenced the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – which showed a 0.5% month‑on‑month rise and a 3.7% year‑on‑year increase in September, underscoring persistent price pressures.
CPI expectations and the inflation backdrop
The October CPI data, scheduled for 8:30 a.m. Eastern time, was expected to show a 0.3% month‑on‑month increase, down from September’s 0.6% surge driven by fuel costs. Natixis chief U.S. economist Christopher Hodge highlighted a likely slowdown in core CPI, pointing to easing shelter rents and stabilising diesel prices as the main drivers.
However, the Bureau of Labor Statistics confirmed that only month‑on‑month figures would be released because a 2025 government shutdown limited data collection. The absence of year‑over‑year numbers adds uncertainty, but market participants already priced a softer CPI into their models, which is why Waller’s firm stance surprised many and forced a rapid repricing of rate‑hike odds.
Read also: Fed rhetoric and CPI expectations guide yields – Rabobank analysis
Impact on broader markets and crypto flow dynamics
Higher‑rate expectations traditionally act as headwinds for cryptocurrencies by shrinking the pool of dollars flowing into speculative assets. The same logic applied to equity markets, where tech‑heavy Nasdaq futures slipped as investors reassessed risk appetite. In the crypto space, other digital assets mirrored BTC’s modest decline: Ethereum fell 0.34% to $2,095.62, while Solana dropped 1.04% to $85.18.
Conversely, a handful of altcoins posted gains, with Dogecoin up 0.73% to $0.06940 and Binance Coin rising 1.24% to $689.09, suggesting selective buying on the back of relative strength. Nonetheless, the overall sentiment remained cautious, as the market digested the possibility of tighter liquidity through the end of the year.
What traders should monitor next
The immediate focus will shift to the October CPI release later Thursday. A reading that confirms the 0.3% rise could cement the 96% probability of a December hike, while a surprise upside might push odds even higher. Additionally, the Fed’s December meeting agenda, including the dot‑plot and any forward guidance, will be scrutinised for clues about the pace of future tightening.
Key technical levels to watch on the BTC/USD chart include support near $73,500 and resistance around $75,000. A break below the support zone could trigger further downside, especially if the Fed follows through with the hike. Conversely, a bounce above $75,000 would suggest that the market has already priced in the policy move and may look for upside driven by risk‑on sentiment.
- BTC/USD: $74,280.31 (up 0.19%) on Nov 10, 2026
- FedWatch Dec‑2026 hike probability: 96.3% after Waller speech
- Oct CPI forecast: +0.3% MoM
- Nasdaq 100 futures: -0.4% after the comments
Frequently asked questions
How did Christopher Waller’s comments affect Bitcoin’s price on Nov 10, 2026?
Waller said he would support a 0.25% rate hike at the Dec. 9 FOMC meeting, which lifted the market’s probability of a hike to 96.3%. The news pushed BTC/USD down 1.3% to $74,080 before closing slightly higher at $74,280.31, a 0.19% gain for the day.
What is the expected October CPI figure and why does it matter for the Fed’s policy outlook?
Economists expected the October CPI to rise 0.3% month‑on‑month, slower than September’s 0.6% gain. A lower CPI would normally ease inflation concerns, but Waller indicated he would still back a hike, meaning the CPI reading is less likely to alter the Fed’s December rate‑increase plan.
Official data sources
Related news
- Fed rhetoric and CPI expectations guide yields – Rabobank analysis
- NZD/USD eyes break above 0.5640‑0.5645 ahead of US CPI
- AUD/USD near 0.6900 as traders await US CPI data
- Bitcoin slips below $75,000 ahead of US CPI data
More from ITF
- ITF trading signals for gold and forex
- Copy verified traders with ITF Copy Trading
- This week’s economic calendar
This article is compiled from international market news for information only. It is not investment advice.