Ethereum (ETH) slipped under its $2,309 realized cost on Nov 3, 2026, driven by US ETF outflows and a record $1.61 bn October outflow, leaving the altcoin near $2,250 support.

Ethereum (ETH) traded below its $2,309 realized price on November 3, 2026, as US‑based investors continued to pull money from spot ETH exchange‑traded funds. The breach of the on‑chain cost basis follows a $6.3 billion Binance hack that sparked a wave of selling across the crypto market.

US ETF outflows and sentiment metrics weigh on ETH

Data from SoSoValue shows US spot ETH ETFs posted a sixth consecutive day of net outflows on Monday, amounting to almost $140 million. October’s monthly outflow hit a record $1.61 billion, underscoring a sustained shift of capital away from the asset. The Coinbase Premium Index, which compares ETH/USD on Coinbase Pro with ETH/USDT on Binance, fell to –0.161, a clear sign that US traders are net sellers.

Historically, when ETH price stays above the realized price, holders tend to defend the level to avoid realizing losses. Once the price slips below, many investors cut positions, adding to the downward pressure. The current market structure, with weak buying and strong selling, amplifies this behavioral pattern.

Technical picture: bearish bias amid EMA barriers

On the daily chart ETH is trapped below three key exponential moving averages: the 20‑day EMA at $2,352, the 100‑day EMA at $2,345 and the 50‑day EMA at $2,411. These overlapping EMAs form a layered resistance that has repeatedly halted rally attempts. Momentum indicators reinforce the bearish tone: the 14‑day RSI hovers near 39 and the Stochastic Oscillator is around 34, both well below neutral levels.

The nearest support zone lies at $2,250, followed by $2,204 and $2,107. A break below these would expose deeper structural floors at $1,971 and $1,827. On the upside, the convergence of the 20‑day and 100‑day EMAs creates a dense supply area near $2,355, with further resistance at the 50‑day EMA and higher hurdles at $2,548, $2,636 and $2,781.

Read also: Market overview: NZ unemployment rise, US midterms and crypto sentiment shape trading

Liquidity events and short‑term risk

Coinglass reported $29.3 million of liquidations in the last 24 hours, of which $20.2 million were short positions. This suggests that leveraged traders are being forced out as prices stay under key moving averages, adding another layer of selling pressure.

The combination of record ETF outflows, negative premium index, and weak momentum creates a scenario where any further downside could trigger additional liquidations, reinforcing the bearish cycle. Traders will watch the $2,250 support closely; a decisive break could open a path toward the $1,971 floor.

What to watch next

Upcoming data points include the US mid‑term election results on November 5, which could shift risk appetite across all crypto assets. Additionally, any new developments related to the Binance hack, such as asset recovery or regulatory actions, may affect sentiment.

• Nov 5, 2026 – US mid‑term elections; potential risk‑on/off shift
• Nov 7, 2026 – Expected release of US crypto‑regulatory guidance
• Nov 10, 2026 – Possible Binance statement on hack aftermath

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This article is compiled from international market news for information only. It is not investment advice.