Market overview: NZ unemployment rise, US midterms and crypto sentiment shape trading
ITF Team3 min read
New Zealand unemployment hits 5.7% and US midterms stir crypto sentiment, while gold slips under a firmer dollar and the Aussie drops below 0.7000.
Key takeaways
- New Zealand's Q3 unemployment rate rose to 5.7% versus a 5.5% forecast on 3/4/2026.
- The Australian dollar fell below 0.7000 against the US dollar amid US midterm election uncertainty on 3/4/2026.
- Gold held above $3,870 support but faced downside pressure as the US dollar strengthened on 3/4/2026.
- US ISM Services PMI data at 15:00 UTC on 3/4/2026 carries medium impact for USD‑linked assets.
Global markets opened on Friday, 4 November 2026, with a mixed risk tone. The biggest catalyst was the release of New Zealand’s third‑quarter unemployment data, which showed a rise to 5.7%—higher than the 5.5% consensus. At the same time, the United States midterm elections entered their decisive phase, prompting traders to reassess crypto‑related risk and to watch the Australian dollar for election‑driven volatility. A firmer US dollar, supported by strong economic data, kept gold under pressure, while oil prices remained subdued on diplomatic hopes between Washington and Tehran.
Currency moves and central‑bank expectations
The New Zealand dollar (NZD) slipped after the unemployment surprise, retreating toward 0.6100 against the US dollar. Higher unemployment suggests a weaker labour market, which could delay any Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) rate cuts that market participants had been pricing in. The pair’s decline also reflected broader risk aversion as investors awaited the outcome of the US midterms.
The Australian dollar (AUD) fell below the 0.7000 USD mark for the first time this week. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently raised rates, but the move was insufficient to offset the uncertainty surrounding US election results and the stalled diplomatic progress with Iran. The AUD’s weakness was mirrored in the broader risk‑off sentiment that saw safe‑haven assets like the US dollar gain.
In the UK, the pound (GBP) remained just above 1.3400 USD as markets priced in a BoE rate hike to 4.00% on Thursday. Money‑market pricing suggests three additional hikes beyond that level, indicating that the Bank of England’s tightening cycle is expected to continue despite the upcoming US election turbulence.
Gold, oil and other commodities
Gold (XAU/USD) stayed above the critical $3,870 support line but struggled to regain momentum. A stronger dollar, driven by robust US economic releases, limited upside for the precious metal. Analysts noted that real yields are rising, which traditionally depresses gold prices, and that the market is watching the US midterms for any policy shift that could affect inflation expectations.
Oil prices were muted as investors digested the possibility of renewed US‑Iran diplomatic talks. While the geopolitical risk premium stayed in place, the lack of a clear breakthrough kept crude from rallying. Major European majors reported a combined $38 billion of cash flow for the July‑September quarter, reinforcing the sector’s resilience despite the broader market’s cautious tone.
The broader commodity market also saw a modest rally in platinum and palladium, as investors sought alternative safe‑haven assets amid the election‑driven uncertainty. However, the overall risk‑off bias limited any strong upside across the board.
Read also: Ethereum price below $2,309 realized price as US selling intensifies
Crypto sentiment and regulatory chatter
A CoinDesk‑commissioned poll released earlier this week revealed that voters—most of whom are not directly involved in the crypto space—remain skeptical about digital assets. The poll highlighted that a majority view crypto as a speculative investment and are concerned about regulatory oversight, especially in the wake of the US midterms where several candidates have pledged stricter rules.
Meanwhile, Tether’s CEO Paolo Ardoino claimed the stablecoin holds roughly 150,000 BTC, a figure that exceeds the company’s own reserve report of about 100,060 BTC. The discrepancy has reignited debate over transparency in the stablecoin market, prompting regulators to consider tighter disclosure requirements.
Overall, crypto markets have been trading sideways, with Bitcoin hovering near key technical levels. The election outcome could shape future regulatory frameworks, making the next few weeks critical for market participants.
Key calendar events for the next 24 hours
- 10:00 UTC – EUR Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y – medium impact
- 10:00 UTC – EUR CPI Flash Estimate y/y – medium impact
- 15:00 UTC – USD ISM Services PMI – medium impact
Frequently asked questions
How did New Zealand’s unemployment data affect the NZD?
The unemployment rate rose to 5.7% in Q3, above the 5.5% forecast, prompting the NZD to weaken toward 0.6100 against the USD as traders anticipate a possible delay in RBNZ rate cuts.
What is the significance of the US ISM Services PMI release?
The ISM Services PMI at 15:00 UTC on 3/4/2026 provides a snapshot of US service‑sector health; a stronger reading could reinforce the dollar’s recent gains, while a weaker figure might ease pressure on gold and other risk‑off assets.
Why is crypto sentiment tied to the US midterm elections?
The midterms feature several candidates proposing stricter crypto regulation. Voter skepticism, highlighted by a recent poll, adds to market uncertainty, making crypto prices sensitive to election outcomes.
Official data sources
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This article is compiled from international market news for information only. It is not investment advice.