Gold continues scaling new weekly highs, eyes $4,050 as US election losses weigh on dollar
ITF Team3 min read
Gold climbs toward $4,050 on Nov 4, 2026, as Democratic wins spark US political gridlock, weakening the dollar and keeping Fed‑rate‑hike odds near 80%.
Key takeaways
- Gold neared $4,050 on Nov 4, 2026, after hitting a series of weekly highs.
- Democratic wins in the House and Senate raised expectations of Washington gridlock, pushing the USD lower.
- CME FedWatch Tool showed an almost 80% probability of a December rate hike after the JOLTS report showed 7.523 million job openings.
- Technical analysis places immediate resistance at $3,970 and the next Fibonacci level at $3,995.
Gold (XAU/USD) surged toward the $4,050 level on Friday, Nov 4, 2026, after posting a string of new weekly highs during the European session. The rally was anchored by a broadly weaker US dollar, which fell on heightened political uncertainty after Democrats secured both chambers of Congress.
Political gridlock fuels safe‑haven demand
The Democratic sweep of the House and Senate revived concerns of legislative stalemate in Washington. Investors, wary of policy paralysis, shifted toward safe‑haven assets, pulling money out of US Treasury bonds and driving yields lower. Lower yields typically depress the dollar, and a softer greenback supports non‑yield‑bearing gold.
The political backdrop also amplified geopolitical risk premiums. President Donald Trump reiterated that the United States has no immediate plans to strike Iran, while Iranian officials warned the Strait of Hormuz would stay closed without sanctions relief. Such tensions keep oil prices volatile, reinforcing inflation expectations and the case for further Fed tightening, which in turn sustains gold’s appeal.
Fed‑rate‑hike odds remain high despite gold’s rise
Even as gold rallied, the market’s expectation of another Fed rate hike stayed near 80% for the December meeting, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. The probability rose after the Labor Department’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) reported 7.523 million openings in September, up from 7.190 million in August. Strong labour market data suggest the Fed will keep tightening, limiting gold’s upside below the $3,970 resistance zone.
Traders therefore view the metal as caught between two forces: a weakening dollar that pushes it higher, and a hawkish Fed that caps further gains. The next catalyst will be the US economic docket on Wednesday, featuring the ADP employment change and the ISM Services PMI, followed by the Non‑Farm Payrolls (NFP) on Friday, which could swing the dollar and, by extension, gold.
Read also: Gold reclaims $4,000 after US election
Technical picture: resistance, support and momentum
On the 4‑hour chart, XAU/USD sits below its 100‑period simple moving average (SMA) and below the key 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $3,947, making $3,970 the nearest overhead resistance. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) rests at 48.9, indicating a near‑neutral stance, while the MACD remains positive at 6.65, hinting at modest bullish momentum that has yet to overcome the prevailing downtrend.
If gold can break and hold above $3,970, the next Fibonacci levels are $3,995 (38.2%) and $4,033 (50%). A sustained move beyond $4,033 would expose the 100‑period SMA at $4,057 and the longer‑term 61.8% retracement at $4,072, with the cycle high near $4,197 still in view. On the downside, the primary structural support lies around $3,869, the anchor of the mid‑October decline.
What to watch next
Key data releases this week include the ADP Employment Change on Wednesday, expected to show 69 k new private jobs, and the ISM Services PMI, which will gauge service‑sector health. Friday’s NFP report will be the decisive driver for the dollar; a stronger‑than‑expected reading could revive the greenback and test gold’s resistance, while a weaker figure would likely push gold closer to $4,050.
- Dec 12, 2026 – Fed’s next policy meeting (rate‑hike probability ~80%)
- Nov 6, 2026 – ADP Employment Change (forecast 69 k)
- Nov 8, 2026 – US Non‑Farm Payrolls (major USD driver)
- Watch $3,970, $4,033 and $4,057 as technical thresholds
Frequently asked questions
Why did gold rise toward $4,050 on Nov 4, 2026?
Gold climbed as the US dollar weakened after Democrats won control of Congress, raising expectations of political gridlock. The weaker dollar and safe‑haven demand lifted gold, while Fed‑rate‑hike odds stayed high, limiting further upside.
How do US labour market reports affect gold and the dollar?
Strong labour data, such as the JOLTS report showing 7.523 million job openings, increase the probability of a Fed rate hike, which supports the dollar and caps gold. Conversely, weaker employment numbers would ease rate‑hike expectations, weaken the dollar and help gold rise.
What technical levels are critical for gold’s next move?
Immediate resistance sits at $3,970, followed by $3,995 and $4,033. On the downside, $3,869 is the main support. Breaking above $4,033 could open the path to $4,057 and higher Fibonacci zones.
Official data sources
Related news
- Gold reclaims $4,000 after US election
- Gold declines below $3,950 as US dollar strengthens, midterm elections in focus
- Gold XAU/USD holds above $3,870 support as downside risk builds
- Market overview: NZ unemployment rise, US midterms and crypto sentiment shape trading
More from ITF
- ITF trading signals for gold and forex
- Copy verified traders with ITF Copy Trading
- This week’s economic calendar
This article is compiled from international market news for information only. It is not investment advice.