Gold falls over 1% as hawkish Fed remarks weigh ahead of US CPI
ITF Team3 min read
Gold slipped more than 1% to around $4,075 on Nov 10, 2026 after Fed Governor Waller signaled a possible December rate hike, while markets await October CPI data.
Key takeaways
- Gold fell over 1% to about $4,075 on Nov 10, 2026.
- Fed Governor Christopher Waller said a 25‑bp hike in December remains likely and a half‑point hike could be needed if core CPI is 0.3% or higher.
- Economists expect headline CPI to rise 0.3% MoM in October, down from 0.6% in September; core CPI is forecast at 0.2% MoM.
- The 20‑day SMA around $4,061 and the $4,000 psychological level are key support zones for XAU/USD.
Gold (XAU/USD) dropped more than 1% on Tuesday, Nov 10, 2026, retreating from Monday’s high near $4,148 to trade around $4,075 as the market digested hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller. The move matters because gold’s price is highly sensitive to expectations of U.S. interest‑rate policy, and Waller’s remarks revived expectations of a December rate hike ahead of the October CPI release at 13:30 GMT.
Fed governor’s remarks reignite rate‑hike expectations
Waller told reporters he would still support a 25‑basis‑point increase in December even if October’s headline inflation cools, and warned that a half‑point hike could become necessary if core CPI comes in around 0.3% or higher. The CME FedWatch Tool now shows the market pricing a full 25‑bp hike for the December meeting, up from earlier uncertainty.
Higher‑for‑longer rate expectations boost the U.S. dollar, which in turn raises the opportunity cost of holding a non‑yielding asset like gold. The dollar index (DXY) responded by climbing to about 101.78, reclaiming ground lost on Monday, and added pressure on the precious metal.
Upcoming CPI data as the next catalyst
The Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the October Consumer Price Index at 13:30 GMT. Forecasts call for headline CPI to rise 0.3% month‑on‑month, a slowdown from September’s 0.6% gain. Core CPI is expected to ease to 0.2% MoM, down from 0.3% in the prior month. Because the release will omit annual rates due to last year’s shutdown, traders will focus tightly on the monthly figures.
If the CPI numbers come in hotter than expected, the dollar could rally further and gold may face additional downside. Conversely, a softer print would relieve pressure on the greenback and could give gold some breathing room, though the prevailing hawkish tone may limit any rebound.
Read also: Market overview: gold slips, silver drops and crypto stalls ahead of US inflation data
Technical picture: $4,000 level in focus
On the daily chart, XAU/USD is hovering just above its 20‑day simple moving average (SMA) near $4,061, which acts as immediate support. The Bollinger upper band around $4,220 caps short‑term upside, while a stronger horizontal resistance sits at $4,400. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is about 49, indicating a neutral, range‑bound market.
The MACD has turned positive, suggesting that upside momentum is beginning to improve, but the proximity of the $4,220 band and the $4,400 ceiling may keep gains constrained. On the downside, a break below the $4,061 SMA could open the path toward the psychological $4,000 floor, then the lower Bollinger band near $3,902, and finally the year‑to‑date low of $3,870.
Broader market context and what to watch
Besides the Fed commentary, other factors shaped the day. West Texas Intermediate crude slipped toward $84 a barrel, its lowest level since Aug 31, after President Donald Trump signaled “positive momentum” toward ending the Iran conflict. The dip in oil helped the dollar regain some strength.
ING analysts argue that the dollar will stay supported by solid U.S. growth, inflation above 3%, and a Fed that remains hawkish into the first quarter of 2027. Their base case assumes no easing of policy until inflation shows a sustained decline.
- Watch the October CPI release at 13:30 GMT – a hotter print could push gold below $4,000; a softer print may see a bounce toward $4,200.
- Key technical levels: support at $4,061 (20‑day SMA) and $4,000; resistance at $4,220 (Bollinger upper) and $4,400 (horizontal).
- Monitor the DXY; a rise above 102 would likely keep gold under pressure.
Frequently asked questions
Why did gold drop more than 1% on Nov 10, 2026?
Gold fell because Fed Governor Christopher Waller signaled that a 25‑bp rate hike in December is still likely and a half‑point hike could be needed if core CPI stays around 0.3%, raising expectations of higher U.S. rates and strengthening the dollar.
What are the most important price levels for XAU/USD right now?
The 20‑day SMA near $4,061 and the $4,000 psychological level act as immediate support, while the Bollinger upper band around $4,220 and the $4,400 horizontal resistance cap upside. A break below $4,061 could open a move toward $3,902 and the YTD low of $3,870.
How could the October CPI data affect gold’s price?
If the CPI comes in hotter than the 0.3% headline and 0.2% core forecasts, the dollar may rally and gold could slide further, potentially testing $4,000. A softer reading would weaken the dollar, giving gold room to recover toward $4,200, though the Fed’s hawkish stance may limit gains.
Official data sources
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This article is compiled from international market news for information only. It is not investment advice.