Gold slipped to about $3,985 on 11/11/2026 as US CPI surprised, lifting the odds of a 50‑bp Fed hike in December to 12.7% and pressuring the yellow metal.

Gold slipped below the $4,000 barrier, touching $3,985 in the early Asian session on 11/11/2026. The drop followed a hotter‑than‑expected US Consumer Price Index for October, reviving market expectations of a larger Fed rate hike in December and adding pressure to the safe‑haven metal.

CPI surprise fuels bigger Fed‑hike expectations

The US Labor Department reported that the CPI rose 0.4% month‑over‑month in October, after a 0.6% gain in September. Analysts had been looking for a 0.3% increase, so the data came in hotter than forecast. StoneX senior strategist Bob Haberkorn said the reading “warrants higher rates at the December meeting.”

In response, the CME FedWatch Tool lifted the probability of a 50‑basis‑point hike from 0% to 12.7%, while a 25‑basis‑point move is already fully priced in. Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s recent comment that he would back “more aggressive action if CPI came in too hot” reinforced the shift.

How higher rates weigh on gold

Gold is a non‑yielding asset; when real yields rise, it becomes less attractive relative to interest‑bearing instruments. The prospect of a steeper Fed tightening curve therefore tends to strengthen the US dollar and push Treasury yields higher, both of which are headwinds for XAU/USD. Deutsche Bank noted that the 10‑year US Treasury yield was up 1 bp at 4.87% as gold tried to hold its ground.

The metal’s risk‑off appeal also faced a mixed backdrop. While equities showed a “fairly flat” credit environment, a broader risk‑off tone from an AI‑related selloff helped gold post a +5.06% weekly gain – its best week since August. Still, the upside from risk aversion was limited by the dollar’s rally.

Read also: Silver climbs above $52 despite rising US yields

Technical picture: below the 100‑day SMA

On the daily chart, XAU/USD remains under pressure, sitting beneath the 20‑day Bollinger middle band at $4,055 and the 100‑day simple moving average at $4,200. The price is compressed in the lower half of the Bollinger envelope, and the 14‑day RSI sits at 43, indicating modest bearish momentum but not an oversold condition.

Key resistance levels sit at the Bollinger middle band ($4,055), the 100‑day SMA ($4,200) and the upper Bollinger band near $4,215. Support is found at the lower Bollinger band around $3,895, where sellers may start to lock in profits if the decline continues.

What traders will watch next

The next data point to influence gold will be the US October Producer Price Index, due on Friday. A hotter‑than‑expected PPI could reinforce the narrative of persistent inflation and keep the odds of further Fed tightening high, extending pressure on the yellow metal.

In addition, any fresh comments from Fed officials, especially on real inflation, will be scrutinised. A continued rise in the FXS Fed Sentiment Index – currently 145.61, well above the neutral 100 – would suggest the market expects a “higher‑for‑longer” policy path, which typically supports the dollar and depresses gold.

• CPI Oct 2026: +0.4% MoM (vs 0.3% forecast)
• Fed‑hike probability (50 bp) up to 12.7%
• Gold price 11/11/2026: ~ $3,985
• 10‑yr Treasury yield: 4.87%

Frequently asked questions

Official data sources

• Federal Reserve (Fed)
• World Gold Council – Goldhub

Related news

• Silver climbs above $52 despite rising US yields
• Market overview: Fed rate‑hike bets push gold below $4,000 and widen AUD‑USD gap
• Pound at three‑week low ahead of UK GDP data
• Gold drops as dollar tests yearly highs

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This article is compiled from international market news for information only. It is not investment advice.