GBP/USD slipped to its lowest level since mid‑October, trading near 1.3300 as investors await the ONS Q3 GDP release forecast at 0.7% quarter‑on‑quarter on 11/12/2026.

The pound slipped to a three‑week trough on 11/12/2026, with GBP/USD hovering just below 1.3300 – its lowest point since mid‑October. The move follows two consecutive session declines after the Bank of England’s surprise rate hike on 11/5/2026 and comes ahead of the Office for National Statistics’ third‑quarter GDP release later that morning.

Price action and recent drivers

At the start of the trading week the pair was near 1.3450. By Tuesday it had slipped to just under 1.3400 and continued down to the current 1.3295 level. The decline reflects market anticipation of a widening rate‑policy gap: Fed officials, led by Governor Christopher Waller, hinted at a December hike that would lift the U.S. funds rate to 4.25%, above the BoE’s 4.00% Bank Rate.

The BoE’s 8‑1 vote on 11/5/2026 marked its first tightening in more than three years. External member Ben Greene warned that UK wage growth remains elevated, suggesting a second hike could be on the table. Those comments have kept the pound under pressure, especially as the U.S. consumer price index for October rose 0.4% – a surprise that reinforced expectations of further Fed tightening.

GDP forecast and its significance

The ONS is set to publish Q3 2026 GDP at 07:00 GMT on 11/12/2026. Forecasts call for a 0.7% quarterly increase (up from 0.5% in Q2) and a 1.9% year‑on‑year rise (up from 1.4%). September’s monthly figure is expected to be flat after a 0.1% gain, while industrial production is projected to fall 0.3% after a 0.8% surge.

Stronger‑than‑expected growth would bolster the BoE’s case for a second rate rise at its Dec 17 meeting, potentially narrowing the rate differential with the Fed. Conversely, a weaker reading could reinforce expectations of a more dovish stance, putting additional downside pressure on the pound.

Read also: Gold falls below $4,000 as Fed rate‑hike bets rise

Technical context and key levels

The pair peaked near 1.3500 on 11/4‑5/2026 before giving back roughly 60% of that gain. It now sits at the upper edge of the 1.3200‑1.3300 range that defined early‑October trading. Support is seen near 1.3200, while resistance lies around 1.3400. A break below 1.3200 could open the path toward the 1.3100‑1.3150 zone, where the October 14 low was recorded.

Traders will also watch U.S. data later on 11/12/2026 – jobless claims (forecast 195 K) and, on 11/13/2026, producer‑price numbers (forecast +0.4%). Both releases could influence Fed expectations and, indirectly, the GBP/USD dynamic ahead of the BoE’s decision.

• 11/5/2026 – BoE raises Bank Rate to 4.00% (first hike in 3+ years)
• 11/12/2026 – ONS Q3 GDP forecast: +0.7% q/q, +1.9% y/y
• 12/9/2026 – Market pricing of a Fed hike to 4.25%
• 12/17/2026 – BoE’s next policy meeting

Frequently asked questions

Official data sources

• U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
• Bank of England

Related news

• Gold falls below $4,000 as Fed rate‑hike bets rise
• Market overview: Fed rate‑hike bets push gold below $4,000 and widen AUD‑USD gap
• Gold drops as dollar tests yearly highs
• Nvidia investigation and UK budget leak move markets on Nov 11, 2026

More from ITF

• ITF trading signals for gold and forex
• Copy verified traders with ITF Copy Trading
• This week’s economic calendar

This article is compiled from international market news for information only. It is not investment advice.