Gold gains over 1% as US dollar eases after strong payrolls
ITF Team2 min read
Gold climbs to $4,117, up 1.26% on 11/9/2026, as the US dollar slips from its post‑NFP high and traders await US CPI data.
Key takeaways
- Gold rose to around $4,117 on 11/9/2026, up 1.26% on the day.
- The US Dollar Index fell to about 101.83, down from a post‑payroll high of 102.36.
- Nonfarm Payrolls for October increased by 165,000, far above the 65,000 forecast.
- Traders price an 80% probability of a Fed rate hike in December according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Gold (XAU/USD) jumped more than 1% on Monday, 11/9/2026, reaching roughly $4,117 as the US dollar retreated and Treasury yields eased. The move comes after a surprisingly strong US jobs report and ahead of the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release, keeping the metal in focus for traders.
Dollar weakness and yield decline lift gold
The US Dollar Index slipped to around 101.83, retreating from its post‑payroll peak of 102.36. A softer greenback reduces the price of gold, which is quoted in dollars, while lower Treasury yields diminish the opportunity cost of holding a non‑yielding asset. Together, these factors provided the immediate tailwind for gold’s rally.
The yield side was reinforced by a pull‑back in US Treasury rates, driven in part by a decline in oil prices. West Texas Intermediate fell to about $86.75 a barrel, more than 3% lower, after diplomatic moves in the Middle East and expectations that a Democratic‑controlled Congress could pressure the President to de‑escalate the Iran conflict.
Labour market data and Fed expectations
October Nonfarm Payrolls surprised to the upside, adding 165,000 jobs versus the 65,000 consensus, and the unemployment rate edged down to 4.1%. The robust numbers suggest the labour market remains resilient, leaving the Federal Reserve room to consider another rate hike before year‑end.
Commerzbank Research highlighted that 16 of 18 Fed officials surveyed in September expected at least one more hike this year, and recent data have not materially altered that view. The CME FedWatch Tool now implies an 80% probability of a December rate increase, a hawkish backdrop that typically caps gold’s upside.
Read also: USD weakens as US‑Iran agreement speculation pressures dollar
Technical picture: key moving averages and momentum
On the daily chart, gold is trading above its 21‑day SMA at $4,068, while the 50‑day and 100‑day SMAs sit near $4,190 and $4,201, respectively, acting as immediate resistance. The 200‑day SMA at $4,457 remains well above current levels, underscoring a longer‑term bearish bias.
Momentum indicators are mixed: the RSI hovers just above the neutral 50 mark and the MACD stays in positive territory, hinting at short‑term strength despite the broader downtrend. Support is found at the 21‑day SMA, the psychological $4,000 floor, and the year‑to‑date low of $3,870.
What to watch next
The market’s next catalyst is the US CPI report due on Tuesday, followed by the Producer Price Index on Friday. A surprise on inflation could swing expectations for the Fed’s December decision and, by extension, gold’s trajectory.
Traders will also monitor Fed officials’ speeches throughout the week for any shift in tone. On the price side, breaking above $4,200 could open the path to the 100‑day SMA, while a fall below $4,068 may test the $4,000 psychological level.
- US CPI release – Tuesday, 11/10/2026
- Fed speeches – throughout the week of 11/9/2026
- Key resistance: $4,190 (50‑day SMA), $4,201 (100‑day SMA)
- Key support: $4,068 (21‑day SMA), $4,000 psychological floor
Frequently asked questions
Why did gold rise after the strong US jobs report?
The October Nonfarm Payrolls beat expectations, pushing the US dollar lower from its post‑payroll high. A weaker dollar makes gold cheaper in other currencies, and the accompanying dip in Treasury yields lowered the cost of holding a non‑yielding asset, both supporting gold’s rise.
How could the upcoming US CPI data affect gold?
CPI will show whether inflation is staying above the Fed’s 2% target. If inflation comes in hotter, markets may price in more aggressive Fed tightening, which could weigh on gold. Conversely, a cooler CPI could reinforce the dollar’s weakness and keep gold’s upside alive.
Official data sources
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This article is compiled from international market news for information only. It is not investment advice.