GBP/USD reclaims 1.3400 as Iran war fears ease
ITF Team3 min read
The pound rose over 0.5% to trade above 1.3400 on 11/9/2026 after President Trump downplayed US‑Iran tensions, while traders await US CPI data.
Key takeaways
- GBP/USD climbed above 1.3400 on 11/9/2026, gaining more than 0.5%.
- The US Dollar Index fell 0.36% to 101.91, supporting the pound’s advance.
- CME FedWatch Tool shows an 82% chance of a Fed rate hike in December, up from 76% on 11/8/2026.
- US CPI is forecast to rise to 3.9% YoY for November, with core CPI at 2.8% YoY.
On 11/9/2026 the British pound surged past the 1.3400 level, gaining over 0.5% against the US dollar. The move was sparked by President Donald Trump’s remarks that downplayed the risk of a wider US‑Iran conflict, easing geopolitical tension that had been weighing on the greenback.
Geopolitical optimism lifts the pound and dents the dollar
Trump’s comments came as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed the Strait of Hormuz was closed to unauthorized traffic, but the US Navy’s blockade remained in place. Markets interpreted the reduced escalation risk as a tailwind for risk‑on assets, pushing US equity indices higher and weakening the US Dollar Index (DXY), which slipped 0.36% to 101.91.
The weaker dollar gave GBP/USD a clear directional bias. At the time of writing the pair was trading at 1.3402, comfortably above the simple moving‑average triple (SMA‑3) at 1.3359, which now underpins the rally. The 14‑period RSI hovered around 54, indicating steady bullish pressure without overbought signals.
Domestic backdrop: BoE rate hike and UK GDP outlook
Last week the Bank of England raised its policy rate in a 7‑2 vote, a move seen as hawkish despite dissenting members calling for a larger increase. Governor Andrew Bailey cautioned that there was no clear evidence of second‑round inflation effects, leaving the policy path open.
Traders will also watch upcoming UK GDP data, which could influence future BoE decisions, especially as high energy prices continue to affect the economy. For now, the pound benefits from the BoE’s tighter stance while the dollar wrestles with mixed US data.
Read also: Gold price outlook: high real yields pose a risk ahead of US CPI
US data cycle: payrolls, Fed expectations and pending CPI
The US labor market surprised on 11/7/2026, with the unemployment rate falling from 4.2% to 4.1% in the Nonfarm Payrolls report. The surprise nudged the CME FedWatch probability of a December rate hike up to 82% from 76% a day earlier, reflecting a mildly hawkish shift.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee added to the hawkish tone on 11/9/2026, warning that services inflation was “picking up” and could become a “big problem.” All eyes now turn to the US Consumer Price Index release on 11/10/2026, forecast at 3.9% YoY (up from 3.7%) with core CPI expected at 2.8% YoY.
Technical picture and key levels
On the daily chart, GBP/USD sits above two broken downward trend lines – one near 1.3228 and a more recent one at 1.3376 – providing a strong structural base. Immediate support lies at the 1.3376 break area and the SMA‑3 at 1.3359, while the next resistance is the upward trend‑line break from 1.3140 around 1.3696. A higher barrier sits near 1.3865, where prior supply could limit further upside.
The FXS Fed Sentiment Index remains elevated, reinforcing a macro backdrop that favours the pound. Momentum indicators suggest the bullish bias is sustainable, but traders should watch for any surprise in the US CPI that could quickly reverse the dollar’s weakness.
What to watch next
Key events to monitor after 11/9/2026 include: the US CPI release (11/10), UK GDP figures (date TBD), and any fresh statements from the Fed or BoE that could shift expectations. On the price side, a break above 1.3696 would open the path toward 1.3865, while a slip below 1.3359 could expose the pair to the 1.3228 support zone.
- US CPI (Nov) release – 11/10/2026
- UK GDP data – upcoming (date to be announced)
- Potential Fed policy shift after CPI
- BoE commentary on inflation and rates
Frequently asked questions
Why did GBP/USD move above 1.3400 on 11/9/2026?
The pound rose after President Trump downplayed a possible escalation in the US‑Iran conflict, which reduced demand for the safe‑haven US dollar. The DXY fell 0.36% to 101.91, giving GBP/USD a clear upside bias.
What US data could affect the pound’s momentum after 11/9/2026?
Traders are focused on the US Consumer Price Index due on 11/10/2026, forecast at 3.9% YoY, and the Fed’s December rate‑hike probability, which the CME FedWatch Tool put at 82% following the strong payrolls report.
What are the next technical resistance levels for GBP/USD?
After holding above 1.3402, the pair’s next major resistance is around 1.3696, the upward trend‑line break from 1.3140. A higher ceiling sits near 1.3865, where earlier supply could cap further gains.
Official data sources
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This article is compiled from international market news for information only. It is not investment advice.