Gold falls 3% as US CPI fuels Fed hike expectations
ITF Team2 min read
Gold slid 3% to $4,019 on Nov 10, 2026 after CPI showed a 0.4% rise, pushing the Fed hike probability to 88.2% and lifting Treasury yields.
Key takeaways
- Gold dropped to $4,019.53 on Nov 10, 2026, a 2.88% decline from the previous session.
- US CPI rose 0.4% month‑over‑month in October, above the 0.3% consensus.
- The FedWatch Tool showed an 88.2% chance of a 25 bps hike in December 2026.
- 2‑year Treasury yields climbed toward 4.75% while 10‑year yields stayed above 5.00%.
On Nov 10, 2026, spot gold (XAU/USD) fell 3% to $4,019.53, breaking the $4,000‑$4,020 support zone. The move was sparked by a hotter‑than‑expected US consumer‑price index (CPI) that raised the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December to 88.2%.
CPI data and the Fed’s policy outlook
The October CPI increased by 0.4% month‑over‑month, outpacing the 0.3% forecast. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% versus the expected 0.2%. The stronger inflation reading convinced market participants that the Fed is unlikely to pause, with the FedWatch Tool assigning an 88.2% chance of a 25‑basis‑point hike and an 11.8% chance of a 50‑basis‑point move in December.
Higher inflation expectations pushed Treasury yields higher. The two‑year Treasury yield surged toward 4.75%, while the ten‑year yield settled above the psychologically important 5.00% level. Rising real yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non‑yielding assets such as gold, amplifying the sell‑off.
Impact on precious‑metal prices
Gold’s decline was accompanied by a broader pullback across the precious‑metal sector. Silver dropped 4.07% to $51.245 per ounce, and platinum fell 2.55% to $1,523.16. The gold‑silver ratio climbed above 78.00, a level that historically pressures silver lower. Platinum’s weakness was also linked to a 1.8% drop in palladium, a key driver for the metal.
Technical analysis shows gold testing the $4,000 support. If the price breaks below $4,000, the next major support lies between $3,890 and $3,910. The RSI remains in moderate territory, indicating room for further downside if bearish catalysts persist.
Read also: Bitcoin slides toward $73,000 after hot US CPI sparks $700 million liquidations
Currency dynamics and market sentiment
The US dollar strengthened against a broad basket of currencies as traders priced in higher Treasury yields and a more hawkish Fed. A stronger dollar is a direct bearish factor for gold because the metal is priced in dollars, making it more expensive for holders of other currencies.
In the foreign‑exchange market, the dollar index rose alongside the rally in Treasury yields, reinforcing the negative bias for gold and other commodities.
What traders should watch next
Key levels to monitor include gold’s $4,020 resistance, the $4,080 pivot, and the $4,174 resistance. A bounce above $4,080 could signal a short‑term recovery, while a break below $4,000 would likely trigger a move toward the $3,890‑$3,910 zone.
For silver, the $51.00 level is crucial; a drop below it could open the path to $50.00 and then $47.00‑$48.00 support. Conversely, a rally above $54.00 would target $55.00 and higher resistance at $56.00‑$57.00. Platinum traders should watch the $1,520‑$1,540 range for upside and the $1,440‑$1,460 band for downside.
- Upcoming data: US PCE inflation (Nov 15, 2026)
- Fed meeting minutes (Dec 1, 2026)
- US non‑farm payrolls (Nov 8, 2026)
Frequently asked questions
Why did gold fall after the October CPI report?
The October CPI rose 0.4% month‑over‑month, beating the 0.3% forecast. The stronger inflation reading lifted the probability of a Fed rate hike in December to 88.2%, pushing Treasury yields higher and making gold less attractive, which drove the price down to $4,019.53 on Nov 10, 2026.
What are the next technical support levels for gold if it breaks $4,000?
If gold slips below $4,000, the next support zone is between $3,890 and $3,910. A further decline could test the $3,800 area, while a rebound above $4,020 would aim for the $4,080 pivot and the $4,173 resistance.
Official data sources
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This article is compiled from international market news for information only. It is not investment advice.