Gold fell under $3,900 in early European trade, its lowest since Oct 2025, as hawkish Fed expectations and election uncertainty curb the dollar.

Gold (XAU/USD) slipped below the $3,900 threshold during the first half of the European session on Tuesday, edging toward its weakest level since October 2025. The decline was sparked by renewed expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve may keep tightening policy, even as the U.S. dollar struggled to attract buyers ahead of the mid‑term elections.

Data and policy backdrop

• U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.5 in October, beating forecasts and marking a 10th straight month of expansion.
• Higher‑than‑expected PMI reinforced bets that the Fed could raise rates further, supporting yields and pressuring gold.
• The dollar’s rally was muted by market caution ahead of elections that will decide control of the House and Senate.

Geopolitical and technical factors

• Talks to end the U.S.–Iran conflict continued, with President Trump and Iran’s foreign minister indicating a possible deal, but no breakthrough was reached.
• Tensions between Russia and Ukraine remain elevated, keeping a risk premium that can support the dollar and weigh on gold.
• Technicals show XAU/USD below the 100‑period EMA on the 4‑hour chart, RSI around 40 and a modestly positive MACD, suggesting limited upside.

What traders are watching

• If gold breaks the $3,870 swing low on Friday, the downside could extend toward the 100‑period EMA at $4,053.
• Key U.S. data later in the week includes the JOLTS job openings report and the Non‑Farm Payrolls, which may reshape risk sentiment.

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This article is compiled from international market news for information only. It is not investment advice.