The yen slips against most peers while the dollar hovers near 158.30, with markets eyeing US midterms and possible BoJ policy moves.

The Japanese yen fell against all major currencies except the Australian dollar on Tuesday, with the US dollar up 0.28% to around 158.30 per yen. The broader Asia‑Pacific currency basket lagged despite expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will stay on a tightening path after last week’s decision to keep rates steady at 1.25% with an 8‑1 vote.

BoJ stance and market pricing

• Commerzbank analysts say the BoJ’s latest assessment shows underlying inflation near its 2% target, but Governor Kazuo Ueda warned of upside risks and the need for further normalisation.
• The OIS market is pricing a 20‑basis‑point hike by the end of 2026 and a total of 69 basis points by September 2027, indicating a measured but persistent tightening trajectory.

Policy rhetoric and yen volatility

• Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama signalled readiness to intervene if yen moves become disorderly, stressing a tougher stance on excessive volatility.
• Commerzbank highlighted the warning, noting that authorities may act against speculative swings.

US dollar outlook ahead of midterms

• The US Dollar Index stayed flat around 101.85, near its monthly low of 101.43, as investors await the midterm elections later in the North American session.
• ING strategists expect only short‑term pressure on the dollar if Democrats win both chambers, but do not foresee a structural shift.

What traders are watching

• Technical: USD/JPY at 158.29, holding above the 20‑day EMA (157.80) with RSI at 55.3, suggesting a mildly bullish bias.
• Key levels: support at 158.29 and 157.80, resistance above the current price if the pair stays above the EMA.
• Events: US midterm results, any BoJ policy comments, and possible yen intervention by Japanese authorities.

Related news

• Gold slides below $3,900 as Fed hike bets weigh on USD
• Evening market overview, 3 November 2026
• Australian dollar slips below 0.70 as RBA hike loses steam
• US midterm elections raise dollar liquidity risks, says Danske Bank

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This article is compiled from international market news for information only. It is not investment advice.