Silver price nears $53 as oil falls and inflation pressure eases
ITF Team2 min read
Silver (XAG/USD) climbs to around $53 per ounce on Monday Asian trade, helped by falling oil and weaker dollar, while Fed rate‑hike odds rise to 78%.
Key takeaways
- Silver rose to roughly $53 per ounce during Asian hours on 11/9/2026.
- Oil prices fell after President Donald Trump said further US strikes on Iran are unlikely.
- The CME FedWatch tool shows a 78% chance of a 25‑bp Fed hike at the December FOMC meeting.
- US non‑farm payrolls added 165,000 jobs in October, beating expectations.
Silver (XAG/USD) edged up to about $53 per troy ounce during Asian trading on Monday, 9 Nov 2026, after two consecutive days of declines. The rally was sparked by a pull‑back in crude oil prices, which eased inflation concerns and supported the precious‑metal market.
Oil decline removes a key inflation driver
Crude prices slipped after former President Donald Trump told CNN that additional US military action against Iran was "highly unlikely" if Tehran continued diplomatic progress and kept the Strait of Hormuz open. Trump linked the earlier Middle‑East conflict, which had pushed energy costs higher, to the Republican Party’s recent mid‑term losses. The softer oil backdrop reduced expectations of a near‑term inflation surge, a factor that often underpins safe‑haven demand for silver.
With oil easing, the dollar lost some of its recent momentum. Since silver is priced in US dollars, a weaker greenback typically lifts silver’s price. The dollar’s retreat was also fed by strong US employment data that kept the Fed’s policy outlook in focus, creating a nuanced price environment for the metal.
Fed rate‑hike odds rise as data stay robust
Even as oil fell, the market’s view of the Federal Reserve’s policy tightened. The CME FedWatch tool indicated that the probability of a 25‑basis‑point rate increase at the December FOMC meeting climbed above 78%. This shift reflects the impact of October’s labour market surprise: non‑farm payrolls rose by 165,000, well above the 65,000 consensus, while the unemployment rate slipped to 4.1% versus the expected 4.2%.
Analysts at AB & AM note that the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release on Tuesday and the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Friday will be critical for confirming whether the Fed can sustain its tightening cycle. If inflation data come in softer, the market may reassess the high probability of a December hike, potentially giving silver another boost.
Read also: Gold price stalls near $4,148 ahead of US CPI release
Technical picture and near‑term support
Silver’s bounce to $53 places it near a short‑term resistance level that has capped the metal since early November. The price is trading above the 20‑day moving average, which has been trending upward since the early‑month dip. Should the dollar regain strength or oil rally again, the metal could retest the $52.50‑$52.00 zone, which acted as support during the previous two‑day loss.
Traders are also watching the Gold/Silver ratio, which has narrowed as gold climbed above $4,100. A lower ratio often signals relative undervaluation of silver, prompting investors to shift allocation from gold to the cheaper metal.
What to watch next
The key calendar items for silver this week are the US CPI report on 11/12/2026 and the PPI on 11/14/2026. A higher‑than‑expected CPI could reinforce expectations of further Fed tightening, pressuring the dollar and supporting silver. Conversely, a surprise drop in inflation could weaken the Fed‑hike case, potentially prompting a short‑term rally in the metal.
- 11/12/2026 – US CPI (month‑over‑month)
- 11/14/2026 – US PPI (month‑over‑month)
- 12/12/2026 – Federal Open Market Committee meeting (potential 25 bp hike)
Frequently asked questions
Why did silver rise to $53 despite a strong US dollar?
Silver’s advance was driven mainly by a fall in oil prices after President Trump said further strikes on Iran were unlikely. Lower oil reduced inflation pressure, weakening the dollar and allowing silver, which is priced in dollars, to climb to about $53 per ounce.
How does the Fed’s rate‑hike probability affect silver?
The CME FedWatch tool shows a 78% chance of a 25‑basis‑point hike in December. Higher rates make non‑yielding assets like silver less attractive, so the rising probability can cap further gains unless inflation data ease, which would lower the hike odds and support silver.
Official data sources
Related news
- Gold price stalls near $4,148 ahead of US CPI release
- Dollar index subdued as lower oil prices ease inflation pressure
- Gold rebounds above $4,100 despite strong US NFP data
- AUD/USD holds gains after China CPI data
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This article is compiled from international market news for information only. It is not investment advice.