Usd/jpy recovers as usd steadies before nfp
ITF Team3 min read
Usd/jpy rebounds to around 158.00 on Nov 6, 2026 as traders await US nonfarm payrolls, with yen support from hawkish BoJ expectations.
Key takeaways
- Usd/jpy moved from the 157.25 weekly low to the 158.00 area on Nov 6, 2026.
- The pair remains below the 200‑day SMA at 158.66, keeping a mildly bearish bias.
- BoJ minutes indicated a likely rate hike in December, supporting yen bulls.
- US nonfarm payrolls on Nov 7 will be the key driver for the next move.
The USD/JPY pair climbed back to the 158.00 neighborhood on Nov 6, 2026, after touching a fresh weekly low around 157.25 during Friday’s Asian session. The modest rebound came as the U.S. dollar steadied ahead of the highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, prompting traders to pause before taking new directional bets.
Price action and technical backdrop
The intraday move lifted the pair out of a two‑day losing streak, but upside momentum appears capped. The 200‑day simple moving average (SMA) sits at 158.66, a key resistance level that has kept the broader trend mildly bearish. Below that, the daily swing low near 157.25 offers a short‑term support zone, with the lower edge of the recent range around 156.60‑156.50 acting as a potential trigger for further downside if breached.
Traders watching the chart will note that a decisive break above the 158.66 SMA would be needed to shift sentiment from bearish to neutral, while a clear drop below 157.00 could open the path toward the 156.50 region. Until such moves occur, the pair is likely to trade in a tight range as market participants digest upcoming data.
Fundamental drivers shaping the move
The primary catalyst for the recent price action is the pending US NFP report, scheduled for release on Nov 7. Nonfarm payrolls are a leading indicator of labor market health and heavily influence Fed policy expectations. A stronger‑than‑expected payroll figure would typically boost the dollar, while a weaker reading could ease pressure on USD/JPY.
Adding to the mix, the U.S. midterm election outcome produced a decisive Democratic sweep, reducing expectations of renewed military strikes against Iran. The resulting decline in crude oil prices and lower inflation concerns prompted traders to trim bets on a December Fed hike, further dampening dollar strength.
Read also: Silver price retakes $52 as traders await US NFP
Yen support from BoJ policy outlook
On the yen side, the Bank of Japan’s September minutes revealed consensus among policymakers to continue raising the policy rate and to adjust the scale of monetary easing. This hawkish tone reinforces market bets for a December rate hike, providing a tailwind for JPY bulls and limiting the upside potential for USD/JPY.
The yen’s safe‑haven appeal also benefited from a sharp sell‑off on Wall Street, which drove investors toward lower‑risk assets and pushed U.S. bond yields to a near two‑month low. Lower yields reduce the dollar’s carry advantage, capping the pair’s rally.
What traders should watch next
The immediate focus will be the NFP release on Nov 7. A surprise in the payroll number, or in related components such as average weekly earnings, could trigger a rapid re‑pricing of USD/JPY. In addition, any fresh commentary from Fed officials on the policy path will be closely monitored.
Beyond the jobs data, attention will turn to the 200‑day SMA at 158.66 and the 157.00 support level. A break above the SMA could open the door to the 159.00‑160.00 zone, while a breach of 157.00 may invite a test of the 156.50‑156.60 range.
- Nov 7: US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report
- Dec 2026: Expected BoJ rate hike
- 158.66: 200‑day SMA resistance
- 157.00: Key support level
Frequently asked questions
Why does the US nonfarm payrolls report affect usd/jpy?
Nonfarm payrolls measure US employment changes and shape expectations for Federal Reserve policy. A stronger payroll figure usually signals a tighter labor market, prompting expectations of higher interest rates, which support the dollar and push usd/jpy higher. Conversely, a weaker number can lead to expectations of looser policy, weakening the dollar.
What BoJ signals are supporting the yen in this trade?
Minutes from the BoJ’s September meeting showed policymakers agreeing to keep raising the policy rate and to modify monetary easing. This hawkish stance fuels expectations of a December rate hike, which bolsters yen demand and helps cap the upside of usd/jpy.
Official data sources
Related news
- Silver price retakes $52 as traders await US NFP
- Yen rises on BoJ minutes as US NFP looms
- Gold near $4,100 ahead of US NFP data
- Gold rises near $4,100 as US NFP looms – market overview 6 Nov 2026
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This article is compiled from international market news for information only. It is not investment advice.