AUD/USD climbs to around 0.6878 on 11/11/2026, up 0.2%, but Fed rate‑hike fears keep the pair’s direction unclear.

The Australian dollar rose to roughly 0.6878 against the US dollar on 11/11/2026, a 0.2% gain in the Asian session, but the broader outlook for AUD/USD remains clouded by expectations of aggressive Fed tightening. The move comes as the US dollar stalled after a hotter‑than‑expected CPI report sparked talk of a larger December rate hike.

Why the Aussie rallied despite a strong dollar

The US Consumer Price Index for October was released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on 10/11/2026, showing a 0.4% month‑on‑month increase versus the 0.3% consensus. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, climbed 0.3% against an expected 0.2%. Fed Governor Christopher Waller warned that a half‑point hike could be needed in December if core inflation stayed at or above 0.3%.

Those numbers lifted the US Dollar Index (DXY) to about 102.25, but the rally lost steam as traders weighed the risk of a US‑Iran diplomatic breakthrough. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar outperformed its peers, buoyed by relative safety and the fact that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has not signaled any imminent policy shift.

Technical picture: bearish bias under pressure

On the daily chart, AUD/USD sits near 0.6881, below the broken upward trend‑line at 0.6910 and under the 20‑day exponential moving average (EMA) around 0.6962. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 39, still under the neutral 50 level, indicating that downside momentum is easing but sellers retain the edge.

Key resistance now lies at the former trend‑line support of 0.6910, with a stronger ceiling at the 20‑day EMA 0.6962. A close above the EMA would be needed to shift the short‑term bias. On the downside, the chart lacks clear indicator‑based supports, leaving the pair vulnerable to further drops if price tests recent lows around 0.6800.

Read also: EUR/USD struggles as Fed hike bets lift dollar

Fundamental backdrop: US inflation and Australian sentiment

The hotter US CPI data has revived expectations of a 50‑basis‑point Fed hike, with the CME FedWatch tool showing odds near 9% for a move to the 4.25‑4.50% range. Prior to the release, those odds were negligible. Such a scenario would keep the dollar strong, capping further Aussie gains.

In Australia, the Westpac‑Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index slipped to 78.2 in November, down from 80.4 in October, marking the weakest reading since late 2022. Higher interest rates and lingering inflationary pressures have dented consumer confidence, adding a bearish undertone to the domestic outlook.

What traders should watch next

The next US data releases – the November CPI on 12/11/2026 and the PCE price index on 13/11/2026 – will be pivotal for the Fed’s policy trajectory. A repeat of the October surprise could push FedWatch odds higher, reinforcing dollar strength.

On the Aussie side, RBA minutes due on 15/11/2026 and any commentary on wage growth will shape expectations for future rate moves. Technically, a break above 0.6962 could open the door to a test of 0.7050, while a fall below 0.6800 would likely trigger a search for support near 0.6700.

• Key levels: 0.6910 resistance, 0.6962 20‑day EMA, 0.6800 potential support
• US CPI (Oct) 0.4% MoM, core 0.3% MoM
• FedWatch 50‑bp hike odds ~9% after CPI
• AU sentiment 78.2 (Nov)

Frequently asked questions

Official data sources

• Reserve Bank of Australia

Related news

• EUR/USD struggles as Fed hike bets lift dollar
• Silver price falls as US CPI tops expectations
• GBP/USD edges higher as Iran diplomacy hopes curb US dollar rally
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This article is compiled from international market news for information only. It is not investment advice.