EUR/USD struggles as Fed hike bets lift dollar
ITF Team2 min read
EUR/USD steadied above 1.1100 on Nov 11, 2026 after hot US CPI data sparked expectations of a 50‑bp Fed hike in December, keeping the pair under pressure.
Key takeaways
- The US CPI rose 0.4% in October, above the 0.3% forecast, on Nov 10, 2026.
- Fed Governor Christopher Waller signaled a possible 50‑basis‑point rate hike at the Dec 8‑9 meeting.
- EUR/USD traded around 1.1120, holding above the 1.1100 level but below the 200‑EMA at 1.1248.
- German HICP data and ECB speeches are the next catalysts for the euro pair.
The euro‑dollar pair stayed near the mid‑1.1100s on the Asian session of Nov 11, 2026, after a sharp slide the previous day triggered by hotter‑than‑expected US consumer‑price data. The move reflects growing market belief that the Federal Reserve could deliver a sizable 50‑basis‑point hike in December, bolstering the US dollar and weighing on the euro.
US inflation data fuels Fed‑hawkish bets
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Nov 10 that headline CPI increased 0.4% in October, outpacing the 0.3% consensus. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, rose 0.3%, matching September and beating the 0.2% estimate. The stronger readings revive expectations of a December rate hike, a narrative reinforced by Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who warned that a 0.3% core CPI could justify a 50‑bp move at the Dec 8‑9 policy meeting.
Other Fed officials echoed the hawkish tone. Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson stressed that restrictive policy remains essential to bring inflation back to 2%, while Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan suggested that rate hikes may need to accelerate. The Fed Sentiment Index stayed firmly hawkish at 145.28, and the Speechtracker score for Paulson’s remarks rose to 8.1/10, well above the historical average.
Technical picture of EUR/USD
On the chart, EUR/USD sits below its 200‑period exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.1248, keeping the short‑term bias bearish. The pair is anchored near the 1.1100 support level, a key floor that must break for further downside. Resistance lies at the EMA; a decisive breach above 1.1248 would be needed to shift momentum back to the bulls.
The range has held for roughly a month, with the euro struggling to regain ground after the CPI‑driven rally in the dollar. Traders are watching for a sustained move below 1.1100 as a signal to target lower levels, while a clean close above the EMA could open the path toward 1.1300.
Read also: Aud/USD bids near 0.6850 as outlook stays uncertain
Geopolitical backdrop and upcoming catalysts
Despite the dollar’s strength, hopes of a diplomatic de‑escalation in the US‑Iran conflict have tempered risk appetite. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s comments at a G7 meeting on Nov 10 that major combat operations in Iran are unnecessary have limited safe‑haven demand for the euro.
The next decisive events are the German Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) due later on Nov 15 and speeches from ECB officials Fabio Cipollone and Christine Lagarde. A softer German inflation reading would likely pressure the euro further, while dovish ECB commentary could provide a counterbalance to the Fed‑driven dollar rally.
- US CPI (Oct) 0.4% YoY, core 0.3% (Nov 10)
- Fed Governor Waller hints at 50 bp hike Dec 8‑9
- EUR/USD around 1.1120, below 200‑EMA 1.1248
- German HICP release expected Nov 15
Frequently asked questions
Why did the euro stay below 1.1100 after the US CPI release?
The US CPI came in hotter than expected, raising the odds of a 50‑basis‑point Fed hike in December. That expectation lifted the dollar, keeping EUR/USD anchored near 1.1120 and below the 200‑EMA, with 1.1100 acting as immediate support.
What are the key technical levels traders should watch for EUR/USD?
The primary resistance is the 200‑period EMA at 1.1248; a break above could open upside toward 1.1300. On the downside, the support level is 1.1100; a sustained breach would signal further weakness, potentially testing lower monthly lows.
Official data sources
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This article is compiled from international market news for information only. It is not investment advice.