Bitcoin price forecast: US midterm elections could trigger volatility shock
ITF Team3 min read
Bitcoin hovers near $77,876 between the 100‑day and 200‑day EMAs as US midterm elections loom, with spot ETFs outflows of $115.56 million signaling caution.
Key takeaways
- Bitcoin is trading around $77,876 on 11/4/2026, squeezed between the 100‑day EMA at $77,794 and the 200‑day EMA near $76,479.
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $115.56 million on Tuesday, following a $398.62 million outflow on Monday.
- K33 Research flags the US midterm elections as a catalyst for heightened BTC volatility, favoring volatility‑based strategies over directional bets.
- The 50‑day EMA at $80,044 acts as immediate resistance, while a break below the 200‑day EMA could open a broader corrective phase.
Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $77,876 on Wednesday, 11/4/2026, caught between its 100‑day exponential moving average (EMA) at $77,794 and the 200‑day EMA near $76,479. The price action suggests a consolidation phase, and a decisive break in either direction will likely set the next short‑term bias. Institutional investors remain cautious ahead of the US midterm election results, with spot Bitcoin exchange‑traded funds (ETFs) recording a modest outflow of $115.56 million on Tuesday.
Technical picture: EMAs, RSI and MACD signal a range‑bound market
The 100‑day EMA serves as a soft support level, while the 50‑day EMA at $80,044 caps upside potential. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits near 40, indicating limited bullish momentum, and the MACD histogram stays in negative territory, reinforcing a weak, range‑bound profile. A daily close above the 100‑day EMA would validate a mild bullish outlook and open the path toward the 50‑day EMA and the $85,000 horizontal resistance zone, where prior supply has historically emerged.
Conversely, failure to hold above the 100‑day EMA could push the pair toward the 200‑day EMA. A close beneath $76,479 would erode the current structure and could invite a deeper correction, especially if institutional outflows continue to intensify.
Institutional flow and the midterm election backdrop
SoSoValue data show that spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $115.56 million on Tuesday, after a $398.62 million outflow on Monday. The consecutive withdrawals reflect heightened caution among institutional players as the US midterm elections approach. K33 Research notes that the election outcome—Democrats controlling both the House and Senate—creates a divided government, a scenario they deem the most market‑friendly but still capable of generating sharp volatility.
The research team points to a widening gap between CME futures and perpetual futures positioning, which has shifted their proprietary regime indicator into a volatility‑focused mode. Historical parallels suggest that such regimes have produced both steep drawdowns and rapid rallies, with no clear directional bias.
Read also: Democrats midterm victory drives dollar slide and gold rally in market overview
K33 Research’s volatility‑centric stance
K33 analysts remain bullish on Bitcoin’s longer‑term trajectory, believing the bottom is in place. However, they warn that thin support and elevated leverage leave the market vulnerable to downside spikes and liquidation‑driven moves. With three‑month implied volatility near historic lows, the firm prefers volatility‑based strategies, such as long straddles, that can profit from large price swings regardless of direction.
The emphasis on volatility rather than direction aligns with the broader market sentiment: investors are waiting for the election outcome to crystallize before committing capital, resulting in a “wait‑and‑see” posture that keeps price action confined.
What traders should monitor next
Key technical levels to watch include the 100‑day EMA at $77,794, the 50‑day EMA at $80,044, and the $85,000 resistance. On the downside, the 200‑day EMA near $76,479 and the $73,500 psychological floor are important. From a fundamentals perspective, the final US midterm results, expected by early November, will be the primary catalyst. Any surprise in the political landscape—such as unexpected coalition talks or policy announcements—could instantly reshape risk appetite and trigger the volatility spike K33 anticipates.
- $77,876 – current price (11/4/2026)
- $77,794 – 100‑day EMA (support)
- $80,044 – 50‑day EMA (resistance)
- $85,000 – horizontal resistance zone
- $76,479 – 200‑day EMA (support)
Frequently asked questions
Why is Bitcoin trading in a narrow range ahead of the US midterm elections?
Bitcoin is squeezed between its 100‑day EMA ($77,794) and 200‑day EMA ($76,479), with the RSI near 40 and a negative MACD histogram, indicating weak momentum. Institutional outflows of $115.56 million from spot ETFs show caution, while K33 Research highlights the election as a volatility catalyst, keeping traders on the sidelines.
What technical level would confirm a bullish breakout for BTC?
A daily close above the 100‑day EMA at $77,794 would signal a mild bullish bias. The next target would be the 50‑day EMA at $80,044, followed by the $85,000 horizontal resistance if the breakout holds.
Official data sources
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This article is compiled from international market news for information only. It is not investment advice.