Crude back to 80% of pre‑war levels while refined product exports lag at 35%
ITF Team3 min read
Middle‑Eastern crude shipments have recovered to 80‑85% of pre‑war volumes, but refined product exports sit at just 35‑40%, per FGE NexantECA data on 11/11/2026.
Key takeaways
- Middle‑Eastern crude exports, pipelines included, have rebounded to 80‑85% of pre‑war levels as of 11 Nov 2026.
- Refined‑product shipments from the Gulf remain at only 35‑40% of pre‑war volumes on the same date.
- Saudi crude output jumped 26% and is now near pre‑war production levels according to the 11 Nov 2026 report.
- Qatar’s LNG loadings rose to 13‑15 shipments per 10‑day period in November, roughly half of pre‑war levels.
On 11 Nov 2026, analysts at FGE NexantECA confirmed that crude oil exports from the Middle East, including pipeline flows through the Strait of Hormuz, have climbed back to roughly 80‑85% of the volumes recorded before the 2022‑2023 conflict. By contrast, shipments of refined products such as gasoline and diesel are only at 35‑40% of their pre‑war levels. The disparity highlights a strategic shift by Gulf producers toward moving crude while keeping refined‑product flows limited amid lingering security concerns.
Why crude is recovering faster than refined products
The recovery of crude shipments is driven by several factors. First, Saudi Arabia reported a 26% jump in crude output, bringing its production close to pre‑war figures. This surge restores the bulk of the supply that feeds global benchmarks like Brent and WTI. Second, the physical infrastructure for crude—pipelines and tankers—has been repaired or rerouted, allowing volumes to move despite occasional drone attacks on refineries.
Refined‑product exports, however, remain constrained. Analysts from Vortexa, including senior market analyst Xavier Tang, note that refineries are still vulnerable to drone strikes, especially in Iraq and Saudi Arabia. Damage to processing capacity reduces the ability to convert crude into gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel for export. Moreover, many Gulf refineries have shifted to domestic consumption to protect local fuel security, further throttling outbound product flows.
Implications for the Hormuz chokepoint
The Strait of Hormuz continues to be a geopolitical flashpoint. Even as diplomatic signals improve, the narrow waterway remains a bottleneck for oil and gas shipments. The uneven recovery underscores that producers prefer to move crude, which is less sensitive to short‑term disruptions, while refined products—more valuable per barrel but requiring additional handling—are held back until the risk profile improves.
Recent data from Bloomberg, Kpler and Copernicus show that Qatar’s LNG loadings have risen to 13‑15 shipments per 10‑day period in November, up from about 11 in October. Although this represents roughly half of pre‑war levels, the increase signals a gradual re‑opening of the Hormuz corridor for gas cargoes. Qatar’s parallel strategy of signing contracts for up to 7 million tons of U.S. LNG per year, with deliveries slated for 2030‑31, reflects a hedge against prolonged chokepoint uncertainty.
Read also: Iraq oil rebound and Red Sea export plan amid Hormuz closure
Market reaction and price dynamics
The rebound in crude exports helped lift Brent prices, which jumped nearly 3% on the day after Iran publicly denied any talks with Washington. Higher crude supply expectations offset the lingering risk premium, keeping Brent above $90 for the first time since August. At the same time, refined‑product markets remain tight, supporting diesel and gasoline price levels in Europe and Asia.
U.S. API data released 20 hours earlier showed a sharp build in crude and distillate inventories, suggesting that the market is still absorbing the increased supply. However, the build was modest compared with the surge in crude exports, indicating that the extra crude is being routed to refineries rather than stored.
What traders should watch next
Key indicators to monitor include: (1) any further drone activity targeting Gulf refineries, which could further depress refined‑product exports; (2) updates from Saudi Aramco on crude output, especially if the 26% increase is sustained; (3) the volume of LNG cargoes transiting Hormuz, as a proxy for the corridor’s security; and (4) inventory data from Europe, where natural‑gas stocks remain below seasonal norms.
- Saudi crude output: +26% (near pre‑war levels) – 11 Nov 2026
- Crude exports (incl. pipelines): 80‑85% of pre‑war – 11 Nov 2026
- Refined‑product exports: 35‑40% of pre‑war – 11 Nov 2026
- Qatar LNG loadings: 13‑15 shipments/10‑day period – Nov 2026
Frequently asked questions
Why are Gulf refined‑product exports lagging behind crude shipments?
Refined‑product flows are limited because regional refineries remain vulnerable to drone attacks, prompting operators to prioritize domestic fuel security and reduce outbound shipments. This risk, combined with damaged processing capacity, keeps product exports at only 35‑40% of pre‑war levels as of 11 Nov 2026.
How does the recovery of crude exports affect Brent prices?
The return of crude volumes to 80‑85% of pre‑war levels reduces the war‑risk premium on oil, helping Brent climb nearly 3% on 11 Nov 2026 after Iran denied talks with Washington. Higher supply expectations support price stability above $90 per barrel.
What does Qatar’s increase in LNG loadings indicate for the Hormuz corridor?
Qatar’s rise to 13‑15 LNG shipments per 10‑day period in November shows a gradual re‑opening of Hormuz for gas cargoes, despite the route still handling only about half of pre‑war volumes. The trend, coupled with long‑term U.S. LNG contracts, signals a hedge against continued chokepoint risk.
Official data sources
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This article is compiled from international market news for information only. It is not investment advice.